S&P 500 Clocks New Record High as Near-Record Winning Streak Continues

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) continued its bullish run in the trading week ending on Friday, 17 April 2026. The index closed out the week at 7,126.06, a new record high following 13 consecutive days of higher closes.

To put that unlikely event into perspective, since 3 January 1950, the S&P 500 has only seen one winning streak that has exceeded 12 consecutive days. That streak started on 26 March 1971 and ended on 15 April 1971. The index rose from 99.61 at the close of trading on 25 March 1971 to reach 103.52 after 14 trading days, a gain of 3.9%.

The current winning streak, which is still running going into the new trading week, has seen the S&P 500 rise 12.3% after the index bottomed at 6,343.72 on 30 March 2026. The gains have largely come as the U.S. has largely achieved its aims in the Iran war, including an announcement from Iran’s government that shipping traffic would resume transiting the Hormuz Strait without harassment on Friday, 17 April 2026.

Investors responded positively, bidding oil prices substantially lower which, in turn, boosted stock prices. The latest update of the alternative futures chart finds the index’ trajectory has risen to fall within the redzone forecast range we added several weeks ago before the geopolitical conflict, where it is now just 2.6% below the central trend line of the forecast range.

The positive development also improved the outlook for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, which is a big change after the last few weeks had all but taken that chance off the table. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool projects a rising chance of a single quarter point rate cut in 2026, most likely to be announced after the Fed’s Open Market Committee meets on 9 December (2026-Q4).

Of course, whether that happens depends on the course of geopolitical events in the Iran war, which the flow of new information in recent weeks has demonstrated to be subject to change with little notice. To get a sense of what we mean, here are the market moving headlines from just the past week:

Monday, 13 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Vance: ‘No agreement reached’ in US and Iran peace talks
• Oil prices jump 4% on US blockade of Iran after peace talks collapse

• What does a US naval blockade of Iran mean for oil flows?

US existing home sales drop to nine-month low in March amid tight supply

Mixed growth signs, bigger trouble developing in China:

• China poised for Q1 GDP growth rebound but Iran war dims 2026 outlook: Reuters poll
• China’s exports set to lose momentum as Iran war undercuts AI-driven boom: Reuters poll
• China March new loans jumps less than expected, no sign of fresh policy easing
• China court orders bankruptcy liquidation for Zhongzhi Group and 316 affiliates

• China Starts Bankruptcy Liquidation of Shadow Bank Zhongzhi

BOJ minions starting to think that boosting value of Japan’s currency might keep inflation at bay:

• BOJ policy to boost yen could be an option to curb inflation, Japanese minister says
• BOJ highlights market volatility, economic hit from Middle East conflict

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Physical oil in Europe hits record high near $150 a barrel as Hormuz crisis worsens

ECB minions say Eurozone energy prices are right where they planned, not as sure about whether they’ll hike interest rates as the market:

• ECB’s Vujcic says energy prices are still closest to ECB basic scenario
• ECB rate rise will depend on effects of oil price surge, De Guindos says

• Euro zone bond yields rise as markets up ECB rate hike bets

Wall Street rallied and closed higher despite failed U.S.-Iran talks

• Wall Street indexes gain as investors hold out hope for US-Iran resolution

Tuesday, 14 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US producer inflation rises below expectations in March, but war fires up energy prices

• Jet fuel shock from Iran war worsens crisis for global airlines

Crude oil plunges on potential for renewed U.S.-Iran talks, pressure from naval blockade

• Oil prices fall for a second day on expectations US-Iran talks may resume

Fed minions continue pushing back on possibility of rate cuts before 2027:

• Fed’s Goolsbee says rate cuts may need to wait until 2027

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s export engine stutters as Iran war chills global demand

• China copper smelters may press ahead with production curbs amid acid export ban

Exclusive: China finance ministry to meet underwriters on special treasury bond issuance plan

China’s March crude oil imports unscathed by Iran war, gas imports hit a multi-year low

• US Treasury’s Bessent says China has been unreliable partner by hoarding oil during war

ECB minions dithering as bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• ECB has not made its mind up on rates, Lagarde says

• ECB rate hike not self-evident, policymaker Rehn says

Euro zone faces big growth hit even if Iran war quickly resolved, IMF says

Wall Street rallies on renewed hopes for US-Iran talks, earnings boost

• S&P 500 jumps and these 20 stocks are fueling the rally
• Higher oil prices, higher yields, no more rate cuts? No problem for US stocks

• U.S. markets continue to be largely isolated from the Iran war oil shock – strategist

Wednesday, 15 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices fall as hopes for US-Iran deal outweigh supply disruption concerns
• Economic growth will be slower this quarter amid war, US Treasury chief says

• Treasury chief says US growth may exceed 3% or 3.5% this year despite Iran war

US import prices increase below expectations; sharp rise anticipated due to Iran war

Former Fed minion tries to put 2026 rate cut back on table, current Fed minions say inflation likely to stay near the Fed’s real target and interest rates likely to stay where they’re at as chief minion pressured to resign:

• Former US Treasury Secretary Yellen says one Fed rate cut possible this year
• Exclusive: Fed’s Musalem says oil shock likely to keep core inflation near 3%, rates on hold for some time
• Fed’s Hammack: Rates likely on hold ‘for a good while’ – CNBC
• Trump threatens to fire Powell if he doesn’t quit Fed board; ongoing probe clouds Warsh confirmation

BOJ minions face a growing lack of support for their rate hike plans:

• More Japanese firms say no to rate hikes as Iran war clouds outlook: Reuters poll

ECB minions say they’re doing great with Eurozone monetary policies:

• ECB in ‘relatively favorable’ policy position, Schnabel says
• ECB policymakers see little evidence for now for April hike, sources say

S&P 500 closes at fresh record, recovering all losses since start of US-Iran war

• S&P 500, Nasdaq close at record as investors price in positive Middle East developments

Thursday, 16 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices rise on doubts US-Iran peace talks will ease Hormuz disruption

• Gas prices are dropping. These states are seeing the biggest relief

Iran war brings US close to net crude exporter for first time since World War Two

Fed minions say less likely to cut rates in months ahead:

• Fed’s Miran may scale back rate-cut outlook again due to ‘less favorable’ inflation developments
• Fed’s Williams says war is already driving up inflation pressures

Growth signs, continuing trouble developing in China:

• China’s Q1 GDP grows 5.0% y/y, tops market forecast
• China’s new home prices extend decline despite improvement in major cities

BOJ minions expected to hike Japan’s interest rates before summer:

• BOJ to hike rates by June as war-fuelled inflation risks mount: Reuters poll

ECB minions say they’re calm for now, not excited enough to hike Eurozone interest rates:

• Calm judgment will prevail over haste at ECB, Rehn says
• ECB policymakers play down April rate hike chances

Wall Street enjoys second day of fresh highs as Trump announces Middle East peace advancements

• S&P 500, Nasdaq edge up to new records with Middle East hopes in focus

Friday, 17 April 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Iran agrees to suspend nuclear program, Trump says – report

• Oil prices plunge 12% after Iran says Strait of Hormuz is open for commercial vessels

US buyers redirect imported fertilizer overseas as Iran war drives up global prices

Fed minions thinking rate cuts in 2026 might not yet be dead:

• Fed’s Waller says swift war end could keep rate cut hopes alive
• Fed chair nominee Warsh will have ideas, economy may deliver surprises, Daly says

No stimulus developing in China:

• China expected to keep benchmark lending rates steady after strong GDP data

• Analysts doubt Iran war will prompt China stimulus, tip ‘solid’ first-quarter GDP growth

BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan’s interest rates again, but maybe not in April 2026:

• BOJ’s hawkish hints keep rate hike on the cards

• Japan’s core inflation likely ticked up in March fuelled by energy costs: Reuters poll

BOJ chief avoids hints of April rate hike, shattering hawkish market bets

Chief ECB minion starting to think Iran war might somehow affect Eurozone economy:

• Iran war presents risk to euro zone growth and inflation outlook, Lagarde says

• IMF expects ECB to raise rates by half a percentage point in 2026

S&P 500 hits record high after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open

• Wall Street indexes hit record highs as oil falls with Strait of Hormuz declared open
• S&P 500’s bottom to record levels marks fastest recovery in 36 years

We normally cut off our coverage of a trading week’s news events with the close of trading each week. Since that’s the case, be aware that events that come up afterward can have a material effect on how stock futures trade in the interim between the previous week’s market close and the upcoming week’s market open.

In other news, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in 2026-Q1 was unchanged at +1.3%, the same as at the end of the preceding week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a suit-wearing Wall Street bull and bear celebrating falling oil prices because the Hormuz Strait is open. The bull holds a newspaper with the headline ‘HORMUZ STRAIT OPEN! OIL PRICES PLUNGE!’ and a champagne glass, while the bear laughs holding dollar bills. A toppled oil barrel and a downward oil price chart sit on the table.”