Goldilocks

Have the Lego Wars, $2-a-litre gas, swelling mortgage costs and job anxiety trashed the real estate market? When can all those realtors stop doing Uber and DoorDash and start earning honest money again?

Let’s have a look at what happened in April. And, surprise, it wasn’t that bad. In fact, many of these stats have aroused loins in the Re/Max C-suite.

The burning question is whether or not we’ve touched bottom. Is the correction over? Will this Spring market rise from the dead, chuck off our societal anxiety, and create the next wave of FOMO, however tepid it might be?

Dunno. Consider what’s happening in these markets, which yesterday released the latest numbers.

In mighty Vancouver sales were down again, but only slightly. The drop from April of 2025 – when Trump was fussing with tariffs instead of bombs – was just over 2%. Notsobad. Agents and brokers say that with lots of inventory and prices off by a fifth from 2022 that buyers are bidding their time, waiting to see if more declines materialize, feeling no pressure.

Total inventory ticked a little higher (to over 16,000 properties) and the benchmark price for all listings was down about 7% to just under $1.1 million.

But notable was this: a jump in the sale of detached homes, as opposed to those scuzzy condos. There were 659 such sales in the last few weeks, a meaningful 14% jump over the same time last year. “Sales of detached homes have been gaining year-over-year, while sales in the multi-family segment have declined, and this pattern is consistent across most areas,” says the head wizard. “While it’s not always the case, there have been periods where the detached segment has acted as a bellwether of market sentiment, and it’s a question whether this time around this might be the case.”

No, it’s not always true. But mostly, it is.

Across the ditch in Victoria, a shocker. More sales than last year or the previous month. Condo deals actually increased about 6% while detached transactions were stable. Single-family home prices have hardly budged over the past year, suggesting a floor and making local realtors go all puffy.

“The overall market in Greater Victoria continues to remain in balance,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Fergus Kyne. “Inventory levels are staying strong, and new listings coming onto market in recent weeks will help serve our traditionally busy spring season. Current not-too-hot and not-too-cold conditions are setting the stage for a very reasonable spring market for consumers. It’s a Goldilocks real estate market…”

The benchmark detached house sold for $1.35 million in the spring of ’25, and currently sits at $1.33 million. Is that an absurd price for a regional city of less than 100,000 souls (the surrounding area has four times that many)?

Of course. But the buyers are back.

And how about quasi-traitorous Alberta, where the premier is playing footsie with separatists? If they gain traction, you can be sure real estate prices will head south. In the meantime, Calgary and (especially) Deadmonton pose some of the best housing values in the country for latrge urban centres.

In Cowtown April sales were 6% lower than last year, which realtors say is the result of reduced population growth, a ton of inventory and wait-and-see buyers. But with a 55% sales-to-new-listings ratio, the market has tilted back into balance (from favouring buyers) – which has resulted in price growth. Seriously. Up.

The average residential price increased from March, and sits at $568,800 – about the price of a garden shed in most Vancouver hoods. Once again, it is detached action which is leading the market.

Say the realtors: “The tighter conditions helped support prices in April, which continued to rise compared with March, causing the pace of year-over-year price declines to ease to under three per cent. As of April, the unadjusted benchmark price was $745,400.”

Up the highway, things are even cheaper, and a tad more interesting.

In Edmonton sales in April swelled more than 16% from March and almost matched those of a year ago. As for prices, they are now 2% higher than in April of 2025 – despite Danielle Smith and all the misguided nation-wrecking yahoos with their little blue flags.

Despite the political angst, realtors stay bullish. “Activity in April has continued the upward trend set in March, albeit at a slower pace leading up to May. The year’s highest levels of market activity will occur in the next two months, especially now that the Bank of Canada policy interest rate has been held at 2.25 until at least mid-June.”

The average house price in that city: $479,000.

We’ll get GTA numbers soon. You might wish to review some of the recent advice on this blog. If war, inflation, AI, rates and Wexit didn’t bring a crash, there’s none coming.

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Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/05/05/goldilocks-6/