The jobs fade

The doomer, burn-it-all-down subculture on this pathetic blog feels smug today with the latest jobs numbers. They suck.

“So far, 2026 is a year to forget for the Canadian labour market,” say the economists at CIBC. “The third monthly decline in employment within the first four months of the year, combined with a slight uptick in participation, saw the unemployment rate rise to a six month high of 6.9% in April.”

We lost 17,700 jobs last month. The toll for the year to date is 110,000. Youth unemployment has topped 14%. In 2026 a total of 60,000 manufacturing jobs have been shed, mostly because of Trump’s tariffs. And sharp immigration curbs have launched a population decline (since we obviously no longer like making babies).

Last month full-time jobs were vaporizing the fastest, and Quebec was particularly clobbered. A bright spot nationally was the upward direction of wages. At about 5%, incomes have been keeping well ahead of inflation, says StatsCan.

So what does this mean?

Lots.

First, your boss is seeing too much risk to go out and hire a bunch of new people. Sectoral tariffs – as on wood, steel, aluminum or cars – are crushing markets, melting cash flows and cratering business optimism. Since you-know-who came into the White House our greatest partner and trade ally has turned into a ruthless, greedy, protectionist adversary.

Second, it could get worse. Employers understand we’re about to rejig the trade agreement that’s been in effect since Trump’s first term. With Epstein’s buddy, former next-door neighbour and Canada-hater billionaire Howard Lutnick at the table, everyone is expecting grief. America is no longer a reliable partner, which explains why PM Carney has been jetting the globe chasing new ones.

Third, what about AI? Nobody is yet churning out hard data on how many jobs are being replaced by bots and, more likely, how many employees (mostly younger, entry-level) are not being hired because an agent can do the gig. There are platforms now (like Claude) that let businesses perform their own vibe coding – cheap, efficient replacements for whiny people who keep asking for more money and sleep in.

Fourth, all this suggests the next interest rate move will be down. But not soon. Expect no change at all for the rest of the year, Bay Street heavies are telling us.

“Continued trade uncertainty and increased energy costs are likely making companies very wary of adding to their workforce. Those worries are unlikely to ease in the near-term, and as a result we see the unemployment rate holding near current levels throughout much of the year,” says CIBC. “We don’t think that the Bank of Canada will need to respond to the current oil price shock by raising interest rates. We continue to forecast no change in interest rates throughout 2026.”

Economists at BMO argue that recent market odds of higher rates by the end of the year are bonkers. “For the Bank of Canada, not sure we can be any more direct, but it’s incredibly tough to see the logic behind the market’s pricing of more than one rate hike later this year, when the economy is struggling mightily to take even one step forward. Even with the big slowdown in population growth, slack appears to be re-building in the job market, which should help keep a lid on any secondary inflation pressures from the oil shock.”

Now, how does this square with the news in recent days of a stabilizing housing market? As reported, sales declines have eased or been erased. Average prices seem to be settling. Inventory has stopped erupting. Sellers are asking less, and buyers are responding more.

This is despite a hot war, the worst global energy crisis of a lifetime, food inflation, a vindictive America, a suddenly-declining population and now job losses and renewed trade angst.

Everything but locusts or an Adele world tour.

Despite that, Canadian residential real estate – like retail spending – has kept its nose above water. There is pent-up demand after more than three years of terrible sales, and prices are now a fifth or a third cheaper than they were in 2022. Mortgages cost less and government incentives are greater. Meanwhile everyone’s getting older and the average first-time buyer, at 40, is worried about male pattern baldness and love handles.

What to do?

Don’t worry about what you can’t control and manage the stuff you can. If you really need a house and can afford one now, buy it. Soon geopolitics are going to look a lot brighter. No, we are not spiralling into depression or circling the economic drain. In time Trump will be gone. $100 oil will be gone. MAGA will be gone. The Wexit weirdos will be gone. America will take a generation to repair and rebuild, all the while looking north in envy.

About the picture: “In full transparency, I will admit I do not read your blog,” writes Lori. “However, I often hear about it and the dog pictures from my stepfather who reads it daily.  I’m currently visiting my parents and was shown a recent dog picture which was a goat. Ha ha! I decided to send in a picture of our dog “Maverick” to see if my stepfather would recognize him in one of your daily blogs. Here he is happily enjoying one of his favorite things which is coming along on car rides to do errands. Have a great day!”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/05/08/the-jobs-fade/