The arrival

Is the price destruction over?

Hmm. Maybe. Now that Canadian real estate has shed a fifth of its value, we’re being told the bleeding has been staunched, the patient still has a pulse and the funeral celebration’s been put on hold.

Here are then latest stats, which the Canadian Real Estate Association (if you trust it) suggests show “meaningful upward momentum.”

• Canadians bought 47,014 homes last month. That sales total was down 5% from last Spring, but jumped 5.5% from April.
• The national average home price actually increased year/year. It was up 1.5%, to $702,079.
• This is the highest national price in two years.
• It’s the first time the $700,000 level has been breached in 23 months.
• The home price index increased in May and is down year/year by the smallest amount so far in 2026.
• The sales-to-new-listings ratio went up while months of inventory went down. More demand. Less supply.

Says CREA: “Sellers’ and buyers’ expectations are increasingly aligned, as evidenced by tightening sale-to-list price ratios and shorter periods between listing and sale dates. As a result, prices have largely stabilized following some softness earlier in the year.”

Is this more of the endless Realtor® BS® we’ve grown so accustomed to?

Probably. But that doesn’t mean it’s not useful. At the moment there are about 200,000 properties listed for sale, so when 47,000 of them change in a single month it’s hard proof the market is alive. People are still buying houses despite the online nihilism and Gen Z slop. And why not – with the cost of properties down 17%-20% nationally, with mortgages available at stable, cheap rates and big buyer incentives like the HST holiday and the weirdly generous FHSA?

As a certain pathetic blog has suggested a few times, if you truly need a home why would now not be a time to go shopping? Why wait for more competition, renewed realtor tactics like offer dates and blind auctions or for vendors to find their cajones again? At the moment you can still make a low-ball offer with protective conditions and stand a decent chance of success. A month or two from now, things could be different.

Bank economist Robert Kavcic is also detecting signs of a floor.

We continue to see a long evolution in this housing cycle, and it appears that the price destruction phase is running its course, at least for single-family homes. We could now be settling into a phase where pent-up demand meets lower prices to bring volumes back. This was always going to happen first for single-family, and we have some early signs that we’ve hit that checkpoint.

Yes, condos remain wounded animals and may stay that way until current inventory’s absorbed and it becomes clear this construction lull will result in future shortages. Investors have also left the market as rents fall and costs rise.

But single-family homes are different. People always crave them. That is not about to change.

Agents and brokers flogging listings in ‘demand’ areas are seeing multiple offers, bully bids and over-asking transactions once again. It certainly is not 2021. But nor is it 2025. Suddenly, with the Iran war over (maybe), oil prices plunging, financial markets making new record highs, massive job gains in Canada and subdued inflation, the gloom is lifting. Real estate in Canada is still ridiculously expensive but it’s hard to argue conditions have worsened. The opposite.

Will prices fall more, or are we near the bottom?

“The national benchmark price was down 3.9% from a year ago, but declines are moderating,” says economist Kavcic. “On a month-to-month basis, the benchmark price was down 0.1% (1.3% annualized) in seasonally-adjusted terms, while the 3-month annualized decline has moderated to -2.6% from near -7% earlier in the year. We’ll see if the downward national price momentum continues to flatten out in the months ahead.”

He calls it ‘the beautiful lull’. After rocketing higher post-Covid, this has been a long, slow, steady grind lower for real estate values – taking us to a moment of equilibrium. Sellers have accepted reality. Buyers, too. There is no 50%-off sale coming to Canadian real estate. This is probably it. The stabilization.

It’s also what we told you would happen. No crash. No collapse. No cliff. Just a slow melt, until we arrive.

Are we there yet?

About the picture: “Writing you from the town of oil and silverados!” writes Adam. “My wife and I moved out of town to get some more space for the dogs, Senna, McRae, Scout and Akira (seen here with my new car). Your blog (and Herculean effort creating that sweet TFSA) have been a huge influence, and we owe so much of our good fortune (and our dogs’ enjoyment of the new acreage) to you. In honour of your work, I decided a custom license plate was in order. Akira seems to approve. Have a great summer’

“To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.