Global Risk Monitor: Week in Review – July 10
Ceasefire Off, Risk Still On: Positioning Into a Loaded Week
The market’s message last week was unambiguous: geopolitical tail risk gets sold, not bought. Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire over, both sides exchanged attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, the VIX kissed 19 Wednesday — and the S&P 500 still closed the week up 1.23% at a three-week high, with VIX back to 15.25. As long as WTI stays subdued near $71.41, flows will keep chasing the economy and earnings, not Tehran.
Rates Are the Real Story
The bond market isn’t as sanguine. Yields rose ~7-8 bps across the curve (2Y 4.20%, 10Y 4.56%, 30Y above 5%), and hike probabilities repriced sharply: July FOMC odds jumped to 31% from 17%, September to 84% from 61%. The June minutes showed a committee split between holding and hiking, with near-unanimity that persistent inflation forces a move. Warsh’s first semiannual testimony Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET — hours after June CPI — is the week’s binary event. A hot print plus a hawkish chair leaves little cushion in duration.
Technicals: Constructive, With One Caveat
The SPX Equal Weight bounced firmly off its 20-day SMA — textbook uptrend behavior pointing toward new highs. Breadth confirms: 65.3% of SPX members above their 200-day, a four-month high. The caveat is semis. The SOX reclaimed its 50-day SMA after Tuesday’s 4% drop, but the price action is choppy rather than a clean V-bounce. If chips fail here, expect rotation rather than breakdown — but watch confidence.
The Week Ahead
Q2 earnings kick off with FactSet forecasting 23.3% YoY S&P 500 growth. Banks report Tuesday-Wednesday (JPM, GS, BAC, C, WFC, MS, BLK); ASML Wednesday and TSMC Thursday will stress-test the semi rebound. PPI, retail sales, and housing data round out the docket. Crypto desks should also mark August 7: Bitcoin’s BIP 110 soft-fork signaling window opens with only a 55% miner threshold — a governance dispute, but a potential volatility source.
Forecast: Slightly Bullish, with Higher Volatility. The risks to that call: an oil spike, or a hawkish Warsh pushing yields through the equity market’s pain threshold.
Source: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2026/07/11/global-risk-monitor-week-in-review-july-10/
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