Re-entry

It’s interest rate day, kids!

But that’s a yawn, so let’s talk about Elon first.

Mr. Musk’s rocket company went public recently, as we all know. SpaceX is a money-losing corporation with one profitable bit (Starlink) and two cash-burning wings (the rockets and AI). But it has Elon. He’s cool, unpredictable and with a talent for attention and boldly making money. The world’s richest guy, after all. Who wouldn’t want a piece of his baby?

So the IPO was oversubscribed by four. The issue price of $135 became a market-opening price of $150 and then exploded to $225, creating an almost-$3 trillion company (did I mention is loses money?). Elon says he wants to put AI data centres in space and then go to Mars. Nothing about either is practical, mapped out or remotely technically feasible.

As blog dog and tech rock star Raigan Burns tells us: “Just as with AGI, orbital data centers *may* one day be an economically feasible reality, but that day is decades away.

“Elon’s relatively more mundane projects — robo-taxis, humanoid robots — are still nowhere to be found, and it’s really hard for me to understand why anything he says has any credibility anymore. He’s very obviously saying whatever is necessary to inflate the value of his assets in the short term!

Anyway, sorry for being so negative — I’m still enjoying your blog, it’s a wonderful resource and I really appreciate all of the time and effort you put into it. I just wish you would be slightly less credulous about tech. ”

Well, Mr. Market has an opinion on SpaceX, too. Those $225-a-piece shares did not stay in orbit, but began a rapid descent. Yesterday the stock closed well below its opening-day price and was about a buck above that $135 offering level. If it slips below that, the black hole of space yawns beneath it.

But, hey, the pumping continues.

I do not know Brian Gesuale, although he is associated with my corporate partner, Raymond James. He’s with the US arm. Me is maple. As a stock analyst he has a 63% success rate picking winners. And I don’t even try, being an ETF guy. Pretending you can pick equities seems like the supreme conceit. And it’s a lousy way to serve clients.

But he’s relentless, and Elon has his heart. Days ago Gensuale said investors should have courage because SpaceX will soon be other-worldly with those shares travelling all the way to $800 a piece. Yes, it will take five years, but she’s coming. SpaceX will be, he says, “a defining industrial infrastructure platform for the 21st Century”.

He adds that revenues will go from $38 billion (but no profit) to $837 billion in sixty months. Seriously. Earnings will be $696 billion. Its total addressable market will be $30 trillion. Musk will slash space travel costs by 99%. And by the end of next year artificial intelligence and data licensing will be the company’s largest business.

Of course, then analyst adds, if things don’t roll out that way the stock could slide to $125 pretty soon. That would mean a $100-per-share haircut (44%) for those greater fools who joined in at the peak.

In short. SpaceX is for gamblers, visionaries, Elon cult members and teenagers trading on Robinhood who figure AI means they will never have a career, anyway. It’s like Polymarket, but with lots of flames and smoke.

It’s not for most people. Probably not you. Certainly not those who can afford to lose large swaths of capital. If you want SpaceX exposure, just by the index.

Be advised we are also taking up a collection in the office so Mr. Gensuale can make payments on his Porsche. The e-transfer addy is isuggestedwhat??@raymondjames.com.

So what did the Bank of Canada do this morning?

Nothing, of course. The rate stays at 2.25% and most analysts think the next move will be higher, not lower. That could come in early September but more likely in late October. But with Trump incinerating Iran and rattling markets, it is surely on the way.

Lock in the mortgage.

About the picture: ‘WUL here. While you await dog pics, perhaps you might feature a bird photo I took a long time ago,” writes Kurt. “My wife and I were cross-country skiing in Peter Lougheed Provincial Park in Kananaskis Country. The bird is a Grey Jay commonly called a Whiskeyjack. The bright light reflecting off the snow permitted me to freeze the motion. My wife was feeding wildlife. That is something people should not do. Cheers and thank you for all you do as a Canadian treasure.”

To be in touch or to send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/07/15/re-entry-2/