Sales did what?

Enough of turmoil, Trump and tariffs. What do people really care about?

Yeah. Taxes.

The evidence is in. When the feds punted HST on new real estate purchases, buyers abruptly came out of hibernation. The reaction was almost immediate, bringing a desperately-needed reprieve for the construction business and a warning of (brace for it…) higher prices in the next year or two.

First, the return of FOMO. Let’s look at the mighty and bellwether GTA.

The housing bears will hate this. But as a certain pathetic blog started telling you weeks ago, the bottom came. It went.

• Quarterly condo sales have increased for the first time since 2023.
• The 700+ deals represented a 52% surge over the miserable levels of 2025. Sales are still far below the 10-year average, but the uptick is seen as meaningful.
• Almost all the buyers opted for units in new, completed projects, not pre-con (the HST rebate may expire before new projects are completed).
• Developers aggressively discounted asking prices of almost $1,200 a foot – which were 40% above the resale condo market.
• Getting credit for the revival is the tax break – worth well over a hundred grand in most cases – and bulk buying of empty units by investors.
• Low-rise builders are also giddy. Sales of single-family homes have outperformed the 10-year average three months running with almost 1,200 deals in June. That’s a 36% gain over the long-term number.
• Singles outsold condos by a ratio of 5-to-1, because of the reduced tax and more price flexibility.
• Detached prices have dropped 5.5% in the past twelve months, to $1,275,458. Meanwhile condos have stalled at a price floor of $1,038,604.
• The June surge comes after new-build singles beat the 10-year sales average in May by 26%.

Now, let’s understand these higher sales numbers are measured against the scorched-earth disaster of the last two years. Projects were cancelled, trades idled and builders impoverished. The jumps in May and June are impressive but the level of deals is still vastly below that of the last decade. This is not a real estate boom. It’s just a resuscitation.

As mentioned, the immediate catalyst is the sales tax break on new homes, which lit a fire under buyers sitting on the sidelines worrying about the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of people want a new house. They dream of it. This is a crowning moment in their lives. It gives them purpose, status, societal approval and their Moms love them for it.

It also tells us about the market.

Prices have corrected in a meaningful way, especially in the resale area. Mortgage rates are stable in the 3-4% range. Inventory is still plentiful. Bidding wars are still rare, Sellers are willing to dicker and accept offers conditional upon financing, home inspections or even the sale of an existing property.

These are conditions which have not existed for a very long time. And as sales level increase, inventory is reduced and demand starts to challenge supply. Then prices stop declining. Finally they resume a slow upward climb. It does not mean we’re on the verge of a 2017-style rush or a post-Covid housing orgy. Just a steady trip back to normal, in the midst of abnormal times.

This was inevitable. Those who really want and need a home, and can afford it without gutting their family’s finances, should take note. Renting and investing is still a better path to wealth, but you’re on your own explaining that to your family.

Finally, industry types are saying while existing condos are selling, the collapse in pre-con sales continues. “Pre-construction demand remains largely dormant,” states Urbanation, the data aggregator. “With virtually no new units being added to the pipeline, condo supply is set to see its largest ever decline in the coming years.”

In all of the GTA, there are no new projects in the pipeline for the second quarter in a row, and 1,000 cancelled units. “Inventory is thinning quickly, which could reflect a substantially undersupplied market within a few years.”

There is no 50%-off sale coming, kiddos. Probably the opposite.

About the picture: “Roxy has appeared on the blog a couple times in the past,” Jeff writes. “This however will be her last time. She recently passed away at the young age of 6.5 from sudden onset DCM, a heart issue with Dobermans. A good friend of mine sent me this tribute to her, thanks Kim. Roxy was well known around town because I took her everywhere.  Her beauty and personality attracted many.  RIP my dear friend I miss you.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/07/23/sales-did-what/