S&P 500 Declines as Higher Oil Prices, AI Capex Spending, and Risk of Rate Hikes Scare Wall Street Bulls

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) fell a little under 0.7% during the trading week ending on Friday, 24 July 2026. The index ended the week at 7,408.70, which is 201.08 points (or 2.6%) below its all time record high of 7,609.78 from 2 June 2026.

The past week didn’t see a single catalyst to weigh on stock prices, but rather three of them. Oil prices briefly shot up over $100 per barrel with the Iran war’s disruption to oil shipping in the Middle East. The risk of higher inflation prompted the second catalyst of the specter of higher interest rates to rear its ugly head.

But the third catalyst was perhaps the most significant. Outsized capital expenditures by AI tech giants like Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL and GOOG) and speculated for firms like Meta Platforms sent their stock prices sharply lower from where they closed the previous week. That action pulled the S&P 500 lower overall thanks to their outsized shares of the total valuation of all the stocks within the market cap-weighted index.

Overall, the S&P 500′s trajectory ticked down to toward the lower end of the redzone forecast range on the latest update of the alternative futures chart.

As we’re reaching the end of the redzone forecast range, we find the level of the index is consistent with investors fixing their attention on either the current quarter of 2026-Q3 or the more distant future quarter of 2026-Q4. Investors have reason to focus on each of these quarters thanks to their status as quarters in which the Federal Reserve will most likely hike short term interest rates in the U.S. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now projects two quarter point rate hikes in the months ahead. The first would occur after the Fed meets on 16 September (2026-Q3) and the second would take place on 9 December (2026-Q4). The FedWatch tool’s projections are biased toward potential additional rate hikes in 2027 with the most likely timing in the first half of the year.

If, when, and by how much the Fed might change interest rates however will be affected by the random onset of new information. Here are the market moving headlines from the trading week ending on Friday, 24 July 2026:

Monday, 20 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US to hit Canada with 50% tariffs on wide range of goods
• New York issues moratorium on data centers

• Data center protests go national as backlash grows

Oil reverses as Iranian comments interpreted as chance for fresh negotiations

• US pump prices cross $4 again on renewed fighting in the Middle East
• Why oil prices haven’t gone crazy despite 5 months of US-Iran war

Bigger bailout developing in China:

• China’s ‘national team’ buys shares worth $9bn to prop up market

ECB minions relieved to see oil price surge isn’t causing Eurozone wage growth, but still getting excited to hike interest rates:

• ECB survey sees moderating wage demands, selling price growth
• Markets price in two ECB rate hikes by early 2027 on inflation concerns

Wall Street ends lower as oil prices rise, investors await big tech earnings

• Wall Street indexes fall, with Iran and earnings season in focus

• S&P 500 earnings season starts off with a bang as 88% of names top estimates
• Chipmakers head for big profit gains, but will it be enough?

Tuesday, 21 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Trump prepares fresh tariff barrage with 10% levies set to expire

• US imposes new 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian products

Oil prices rise to five-week high on US-Iran attacks, Houthi blockade threat

• Asian refiners look to Suez Canal to move Saudi oil amid Houthi shipping threats

Economists think Fed minions won’t hike U.S. interest rates in 2026, but think there’s a chance they will:

• Fed to hold rates this year despite high inflation, but economists cite high chances of a hike: Reuters poll

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• China considers tighter export controls on AI models and chips, FT reports
• China’s world-leading renewable megabases rely on coal-heavy transmission, report finds
• China’s steel sector looks weaker than it is, reverse for iron ore

ECB minions clamp down on Eurozone credit:

• Euro zone banks tighten credit access on war fears

Dow gains nearly 400 points; S&P 500 snaps 3-day losing run as chip stocks rise

• U.S. stocks inch up after investors assess strong earnings, higher oil
• Wall St ends higher on chip stocks recovery; earnings in focus
• S&P 500 is 1.5% from ATH after nearly two months of sideways action

Wednesday, 22 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• OpenAI models went rogue during testing

• AI investment boom puts Big Tech’s free cash flow under pressure

US 30-year mortgage hits 11-month high, MBA says

Oil climbs over 3% to near six-week high as conflict threatens key oil transit routes

• Trump vows to bomb Iran’s bridges, power plants if it shoots at ships in Hormuz Strait

BOJ minions fear yen’s decline will continue, standing by to hike interest rates to prop up Japan’s currency:

• BOJ on alert to price risks that may lead to faster rate hikes, sources say

• Japan imports jump to record high on oil price surge, complicating BOJ policy

Yen steadies near 40-year low on rate-hike bets, intervention talks

• U.S. Stocks Could Soon Have a Yen Problem

ECB minions standing by to hike Eurozone interest rates later:

• ECB to pause rate hikes but signal that more may be needed

Wall Street ends red as U.S. stocks struggle ahead of Tesla, Alphabet results

• Wall Street indexes dip with technology earnings, rising oil in focus

Thursday, 23 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• How the hunt for value sparked a US private-label revolution
• AI will not trigger employment collapse, staffing company Adecco Group says
• Oil prices rise for a fifth day as US-Iran hostilities threaten supply routes

• US oil refineries run at breakneck speeds as wars choke fuel supplies

Fed minions keeping mum, including the hawkish ones who want to hike interest rates:

• Warsh’s no-guidance approach confronts a hawkish world and hawkish Fed colleagues

BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:

• BOJ to raise rates again by December as weak yen revives inflation risks: Reuters poll

ECB minions worrying about rising oil prices again, but strangely choose to leave Eurozone interest rates unchanged if they really believe inflationary shock is coming:

• Oil price surge reignites inflation worries ahead of ECB meeting
• ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged (As Expected), Warns ‘Full Energy Inflationary Shock Yet To Come’

ECB minions also thinking about other things:

• ECB considering several options to mitigate losses, sources say
• ECB will discuss raising banks’ minimum reserves, Lagarde says

U.S. stocks end lower as oil reaches $100/bbl; investors assess tech results

• Wall St falls as tech earnings spark AI spending worries and oil hits $100

• Alphabet earnings takeaways: Q2 revenue beats, GOOGL stock sinks on 2026 capex hike

• Google burns through $6bn in cash as AI spending climbs again
• Alphabet’s cash burn raises alarm for Big Tech as AI spending climbs

Friday, 24 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Trump imposes forced labor tariffs, drawing protests from trading partners

• European Commission gives guarded welcome to new Trump tariffs

Oil retreats from above $100, still set for weekly rise on Middle East escalation

• Oil tankers face attack on multiple fronts as fighting escalates in Red Sea, Hormuz and Black Sea

US business activity perks up in July, helped by World Cup, but trend may not last, S&P Global says

Fed minions being told by markets how to set interest rates:

• Fed Chairman Warsh faces cruel summer as bond yields spike

BOJ minions live up to expectations as bigger trouble develops in Japan:

• BOJ likely to keep inflation warning but expect no big build-up in risks

• Japan June core inflation accelerates, stays below BOJ target

Yen heads for biggest weekly drop since May despite Tokyo’s support pledges

• US warns against excessive yen volatility, calls for BOJ rate hikes

ECB minions get data indicating no changes in Eurozone inflation outlook:

• ECB survey shows broadly unchanged inflation outlook

S&P 500 posts weekly loss while defensive sectors outperform

• U.S. stocks see a second week of losses as oil prices retreat from $100 level
• Nasdaq lags on angst over AI spending ahead of earnings reports

• Moody’s says ‘unprecedented’ AI spending threatens credit quality of Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and others

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool‘s estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the current quarter of 2026-Q2 was unchanged at +1.7%, with no updates in the past week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bear scaring a bull with a stage presentation on ‘WHY BULLS SHOULD BE SCARED’ with three easels set up that say ‘OIL PRICES’, ‘RATE HIKES’ and ‘AI CAPEX COSTS’”. The tag indicating the image was “AI generated” is something new, but hopefully no surprise to any of our readers who read all our articles down to this bottom line!