S&P 500 Rises as Investors Adapt to Having Less Information to Absorb

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rose 1.2% over its previous week’s close, ending at 7,575.39 at the close of trading on Friday, 10 July 2026.

Although in a new quarter, the next earnings season hasn’t yet gotten underway, making the week one in which there was little news from companies to influence their outlook. But this week was also notable because there was also a notable lack of new information for investors to absorb from Federal Reserve officials.

That’s by design because of one of the first major policy initiatives of the Fed’s new boss, Kevin Warsh. On 1 July 2026, Warsh put a new policy into action of not providing much, if any, forward guidance for markets when the Fed announces how it will set the Federal Funds Rate.

That changes how the Fed has operated since the 2008-2009 recession, when it initiated its policy of providing forward guidance to reduce surprises in markets from the Fed’s actions and to stabilize them.

In any case, investors responded by sending the S&P 500 higher, but well within the trajectory of the redzone forecast range added to the redzone forecast range of the alternative futures chart in the previous edition of this S&P 500 chaos series. In the latest update of the chart, we’ve rolled the chart forward to show the dividend futures-based model‘s projections for all of 2026-Q3.

The trajectory of the S&P 500 remained well within the redzone forecast range, which indicates there was little that happened in the week that was to influence the future outlook of investors. Here is what passed for the trading week’s marketing moving headlines:

Monday, 6 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• For one small business, AI was key to a quick start and expansion
• Oil prices settle at pre-Iran war levels as crude output grows

• OPEC+ approves further oil output increase as Hormuz exports start to recover
• US oil companies see big profit jump, gird for clash over pump prices with Trump

Fed minions say U.S. has risk of high inflation, also say main contributor to recent inflation has weakened:

• Waller says risks in US tilted towards high inflation
• NY Fed says supply chain pressures eased in June

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• The largest destruction of household wealth in recorded history, executed deliberately by the state that owned it
• China’s June services activity slows slightly, private PMI shows
• China to cut domestic retail gasoline and diesel prices to near pre-war levels

• Chinese independent refiners snap up discounted Mideast oil as supplies rise
• Saudi Arabia Sells Oil At A Discount For The First Time Since COVID Crash, As China Demand Collapses

BOJ minions get wage hike inflation they’ve sought, bigger trouble developing in Japan:

• Japan wage hikes top 5% for third year, backing BOJ rate-hike path

• Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator

Japan Bankruptcies Surge To All-Time High As A Result Of Plunging Yen

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Euro zone services sector contraction eased in June as inflation cooled sharply, PMI shows
• ECB’s Schnabel says Iran shock is not over

S&P 500, Nasdaq close sharply higher as Broadcom rallies

• Dow posts record close, Nasdaq leads Wall Street higher as semiconductor stocks rebound

Tuesday, 7 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Walmart rolls back barbecue staple prices after Trump says retailer acted at his request
• US May trade deficit widens as capital goods imports hit record high
• Oil gains after vessels attacked near Strait of Hormuz
• US service sector growth dips in June; employment rebounds after months of contraction

Fed minions notice fall in oil prices:

• Fed’s Williams tells Fox Business he’s more sanguine on inflation due to energy price retreat

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s booming gig economy masks job market pain, strains welfare system
• China smartphone sales drop 13% during 618 festival as memory costs limit discounts
• Beijing is looking at curbing overseas access to China’s top AI models, sources say

• China’s DeepSeek developing its own AI chip, sources say

ECB minions worried about weak Eurozone economy, say region’s banks need to do more to fend of cyber attacks:

• ECB’s Panetta says economic outlook remains fragile

• Europe’s central banks may come under political pressure, Panetta says

ECB tells banks to bolster AI cyber defences as peers take lighter approach

Wall Street closes lower on oil spike, chip rout

• Nasdaq sinks as AI worries hit chipmakers

Wednesday, 8 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil rises more than a dollar per barrel as US launches fresh strikes against Iran

• US reinstates sanctions on Iranian oil sales after LNG, oil tanker attacks
• US diesel futures post biggest daily gains in four years after Russia bans exports

US container imports jumped 8% in June ahead of higher fuel costs and tariff increases

• German exports rise unexpectedly in May on surge in US demand

Fed minions worried about inflation last month:

• Fed policymakers’ inflation concerns grew at June meeting, minutes show

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China car sales fall again, exports stay strong
• China’s central bank pledges to maintain accommodative policy amid weak demand, external shocks

Some BOJ minions want to see demand-driven inflation before signing off on next rate hike:

• EXCLUSIVE BOJ dissenter Asada needs demand-driven inflation before backing rate hike

S&P 500 ends down after Trump says Iran deal is ‘over’

• Wall Street finished mixed as U.S.-Iran tensions flared back up
• Crude oil-to-S&P 500 ratio falls to levels last seen in 1998, Covid

Thursday, 9 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US power companies scramble to secure equipment as surging data center demand strains supplies
• US existing home sales fall as house prices hit record high
• Oil prices settle 2% lower as economic worries outweigh supply risks

Fed minions talking about how they do business, think oil prices on track to come down:

• Fed’s Logan says Fed open market operations would benefit from voluntary central clearing
• Fed’s Perli reiterates flexible path of reserve management buying
• Fed’s Warsh taps broad group of Fed outsiders to oversee review
• Fed’s Williams expects energy prices to abate even as Iran war flares

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s producer inflation jumps to 4-year high, squeezing manufacturers
• China lifts fuel export curbs for July, sources say

BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan’s interest rates again with inflation fears, Japan’s bond market somewhat less impressed as BOJ minion independence under question:

• Bank of Japan sees growing inflation pressures from Iran war
• Japan bond market signals waning faith in inflation, government’s fiscal management

• Japan benchmark bond yield extends rise after hitting 30-year high

Japan considers policy wording change as BOJ independence fears roil bonds

ECB minions learn their rate hikes didn’t constrain Eurozone inflation:

• ECB saw inflation rising despite nearly three expected hikes, accounts show

Nasdaq ends sharply higher; chip surge offsets Iran worries

• Wall Street finished higher despite Middle East concerns
• Higher bar for corporate profit growth poses challenge for US stock market rally

Friday, 10 July 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• American household exposure to stocks sees record high

Fed minions worrying about inflation:

• Fed officials fret over inflation risk, weigh rate hikes

• Fed report cites ‘stepped-up’ inflation due to tariffs, Iran war, AI buildout

Bigger trouble developing in Japan, BOJ minions licking at their chops to hike interest rates again:

• Japan’s wholesale inflation spikes as fuel costs, weak yen bite

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions thinking about repeating what they’ve been doing since the Iran war started:

• German automakers hit by sharp China sales drop in second quarter
• ECB is back to square one as US-Iran war resumes

S&P 500 logs weekly gains as Energy and Technology stocks lead

• Wall Street ends higher as investors turn to earnings season
• American household exposure to stocks sees record high

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still projects the Fed will hike the Federal Funds rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75-4.00% after the Fed meets on 16 September (2026-Q3). Beyond that date, the FedWatch tool forecasts another quarter point rate hike on 27 January (2027-Q1).

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool‘s estimate of real GDP growth for the U.S. economy in the current quarter of 2026-Q2 ticked up to +1.3% from the previous week’s real growth estimate of +1.2%.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon that shows a Wall Street bull and bear looking at the new chief of the Federal Reserve holding a folder that says CHANGES IN FORWARD GUIDANCE POLICY with the bull asking ‘WHY AREN’T THEY SAYING WHERE THEY’RE GOING?’”, which we had to follow up with a second prompt: “Make the chief of the Federal Reserve look more like Kevin Warsh”.