The boonies

A few hours away from the Big Smoke, the city of London is home to about 450,000 souls. Growth has been brisk, thanks in large part to GTA refugees.

While the average SFH in Toronto is $1,364,200, in London (on a bigger lot, with lots of trees and squirrels) it’s $613,800. Half off. And that price is 1.6% less than a year ago.

(The real estate industry ‘benchmark’ price in London is $561,000 and just under a million in Toronto.)

These days there’s a four-and-a-half month of supply of properties on the market there. The sales-to-new-listings ratio is stable at about 42% (Toronto is 40%). Prices haven’t changed much in recent months. Sales are up modestly. Inventory is relatively static. The market is balanced. “Historically, we’ve seen slower activity during the summer season,” says local board boss Robin Tiller, “but the June data has given us a steady start.”

In short, things are boring. Prices are affordable. The city is liveable. Buyers can sniff out deals. Sellers are selling. Not hot. Not cold. And you can always take the train to Toronto if need be.

Canada has a number of cities like this. Decent places to live. Sizeable populations. Houses that sell for a fraction of what one costs in urban Vancouver or a pricey GTA offshoot like Oakville. In most of these spots there was a Covid bump, but since then it’s been a process of slowly settling prices, followed by a shocking outbreak of stability.

As this pathetic blog has argued of late, Canadian real estate has largely finished its decline. In the noisy, expensive cities, the descent is ending. In the regional and secondary markets pricing is far less of an issue. After all, if you have $50,000 to put down and a household income of $105,000 you can afford a $500,000 property. The monthly mortgage payment will be three grand.

Here’s a chart of where London, for example, stands in comparison with other places in this bucolic nation we share.

A nation of affordable houses. Sertiously.

Source: CREA. Click to enlarge.

But even in the Big Smoke, things are changing. Sales in both Vancouver and Toronto were ahead about 10% in June, building on gains experienced for several months. Year-over-year prices are down. On a monthly basis, they are stable or advancing. Demand is rising. Supply has been slowly falling. It’s about what you’d expect at the bottom of a curve.

It’s useful to look at the absolute number of sales relative to the total pile of properties available. That’s the sales-to-active-listings ratio.

Analystics site HouseSigma reports this:

“In June it came in at 23.6% across the GTA, up from 18% in June 2025. The ratio had dipped to 15.7% back in January before climbing through the spring and settling into the low twenties. In plain terms, sellers who had a home listed in June had a better chance of finding a buyer than they would have a year ago.”

So what is the explanation for soggy prices in the big city when sales are rising and more buyers are actively searching?

“The rising sales and declining prices can sit side by side because buyers are active without being cornered. There were 26,826 active listings at the end of June and another 17,211 added during the month. That’s enough supply that a buyer who walks away from one home still has plenty of others to consider. While terminated and expired listings rose month over month, they were still well below last June, down about 23% from a year earlier. Buyers are buying, but they are taking their time and negotiating as they go.”

Of course, this will all end when demand augments more or inventory falls. That’s where confidence enters the price. When the economy feels better; when folks are confident about their employment and secure in their finances – borrowing and buying happen.

Watch sales levels. And the sales-to-active-listings ratio. Wait. Prices will follow.

Or move to London, or Montreal, Edmonton or The Peg. Sheesh, just stop bitching.

About the picture: “Hey Garth, I have been reading your blog for years now and appreciate all the free advice and knowledge,” writes Brian. “My favorites are the Dr. Garth posts.  Happy to say I don’t waste my time reading the comments.  Here is a pic of our dog rescue dog Bella who just decided to strike a pose.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/07/08/the-boonies/