Median Household Income in July 2026

Motio Research‘s initial estimate of U.S. median household income for July 2026 is $87,810, a $300 (or 0.34%) decrease from the firm’s initial estimate of $88,110 for June 2026.

Here are screenshots of the interactive charts Motio Research provides to visualize trends in the U.S.’ median household income. The first chart presents the firm’s Household Income Index, which is based on three-month moving average that sets the period of January 2010 through March 2010 at a value of 100 after making adjustments for inflation and seasonality in the data. The second chart presents their monthly median household income estimates in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) terms for the period from January 2010 through July 2026.

Here is Motio Research’s commentary for July 2026, in which they raise an alarm for seeing their median household income estimates and index record their second decline in as many months:

Motio’s original monthly headline series, which begins in 2010, includes Census-imputed income data and shows a recent deterioration in the income level.

Nominal median household income fell 0.3 percent in July to $87,810, its second consecutive monthly decline. The combined June–July fall of 0.6 percent was the second-largest two-month decline outside the pandemic disruption in the series, exceeded only in May–June 2010, when household income was still contracting in the aftermath of the 2007–09 recession.

Real median household income fell 0.7 percent in July to $88,060, following a 0.5 percent decline in June. The U.S. Real Median Household Income Index fell to 118.0.

“These readings do not establish a formal turning point,,” said Romina Soria, co-founder and principal economist at Motio Research. “But year-over-year growth in real household income has slowed to nearly zero, while both real and nominal income have now fallen for two straight months. The next releases will show whether household income rebounds or continues to weaken.”

Since Motio Research’s estimates are derived from survey-based data, it’s possible they’re seeing some noise from turnover in the sampled population being surveyed each month. It’s more likely however the survey-based data is capturing changes that the data Political Calculations uses to derive our complementary estimates of median household income is slower to register.

At least, that’s our experience from seeing our estimates lag behind the upward surge the Motio’s survey-based estimates recorded a year earlier. We’ll see if that pattern continues with next month’s data releases.

Analyst’s Notes

As we mentioned, Political Calculations produces monthly median household income estimates using an alternate methodology that complements Motio Research’s survey-based estimates. In July 2026, Political Calculations’ initial estimate of median household income is $88,150. This estimate is $216 (or 0.25%) higher than our initial estimate of $87,934 for June 2026′s median household income.

The following chart presents our estimates of U.S. median household income, both adjusted for inflation (blue) and not-adjusted for inflation (red) for each month from January 2000 through July 2026.

Political Calculations’ July 2026 estimate is $340 (0.4%) below Motio Research’s estimate of $87,810 for the month. While we’re still seeing our median household estimates rise, as opposed to the declines Motio Research has registered in their estimates during the last two months, we are seeing the rate of increase of our estimates slow. The change represents a negative change in momentum for median household income and is a cause for concern.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 August 2026. Accessed: 28 August 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 August 2026. Accessed: 28 August 2026.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.