Some Themes in my Recent Economics Working Papers

Over the last year, I have co-authored several new working papers on different economic topics. 

The first paper with Robert uses U.S agricultural county level data for several decades to explore a puzzle. Based on county level data, it appears that agricultural output is sensitive to extreme weather (heat and drought) and that farmers are sluggishly adapting to weather extremes.   This past evidence poses a puzzle for adaptation optimists (such as myself) who argue that the U.S workers and firms are highly adaptive and responsive to anticipate threats to our well-being and profitability.  Now, one possibility that I am interested in is whether Government policy (such as farm subsidies) create a moral hazard effect such that this anticipated insurance reduces the incentive for household and firms and farms to invest in adaptation solutions (because they anticipate that they will receive a $ government bailout if bad shocks occur).  In our paper, we study a selection and composition effect point that rural counties are collections of people who choose to live there. If a county is experiencing extreme weather then the most talented, young people are the most likely to move away and this induces a composition shift so that it appears that the place is failing to adapt when in fact the place’s population composition is shifting over time as the most skilled people leave.

In paper #2, Dora and I study an emerging trend in the USA and around the world; people are becoming first time grandparents at later and later ages (if ever at all).  We study the microeconomic causes and consequences of this trend. One example; aging power couples accumulate more wealth as they work more hours later in life because they are not traveling around to see grandkids and then they bequeath more wealth per grandkid born. This exacerbates later generation wealth inequality.

Paper #3 explores reasons to be optimistic about our ability to adapt to climate change. Over time, the world economy grows and richer people have an ever greater capacity to protect themselves from the various local challenges that climate change poses to their health, their productivity and their happiness.  Somehow, the environmental community of researchers and funders do not like good news and optimism!  

1.  Robert Huang & Matthew E. Kahn, 2026. “Dynamic Selection and the Puzzle of Slow Climate Change Adaptation in U.S. Agriculture,” NBER Working Papers 34771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
2.  Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2026. “Compound Delay: The Causes and Consequences of Later Grandmotherhood,” NBER Working Papers 35773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
3.  Burgess, Matthew G. & Brown, Patrick T. & Kahn, Matthew E. & Pielke, Roger Jr, 2026. “The economics of climate adaptation optimism,” SocArXiv m7tqu_v1, Center fr Open Scienc.