US could lose 10,000 jobs a month this year as the oil shock ripples through the economy
According to a report from Goldman Sachs, the ongoing oil price surge triggered by geopolitical tensions could deliver a significant blow to the U.S. labor market, with the economy potentially shedding thousands of jobs each month through the remainder of 2026.
In a client note issued Thursday, economists at the bank projected that higher crude prices would ripple through the broader economy, curbing consumer spending and slowing hiring even as some energy-sector gains materialize. The baseline forecast points to a net loss of around 10,000 jobs per month for the rest of the year.
“The upward pressure on unemployment primarily reflects lower hiring, with a smaller contribution from higher layoffs, in industries most exposed to weaker consumer spending,” the Goldman team wrote.
The bank anticipates the unemployment rate climbing to 4.6% by the end of the third quarter. This comes after an unexpected rise to 4.4% in February, when the economy lost 92,000 jobs.
Higher oil prices are expected to fuel inflation while prompting households to cut back on discretionary spending, amplifying the slowdown in an already cooling labor market.
Leisure and hospitality face the steepest impact, with potential losses of about 5,000 jobs monthly through the fourth quarter. Retail trade, manufacturing, and education and health services are also projected to see notable pressure.
While elevated oil prices have traditionally boosted employment in energy extraction, Goldman noted that efficiency gains in the sector may limit those offsets this time. The warning arrives amid a broader hiring slowdown: after revisions, the U.S. added just 181,000 jobs last year, a sharp drop from the prior year’s 1.4 million.
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Source: https://www.hopegirlblog.com/2026/05/11/us-could-lose-10000-jobs-a-month-this-year-as-the-oil-shock-ripples-through-the-economy/
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