French Nuclear: End of the Line?

“Construction of the advanced ‘European Pressurized Reactor’ (EPR) at Flamanville began in 2007. It was projected to come into service in 2012 at a cost of $3.4 billion. The final cost, according to (Électricité de France) is about $13.7 billion.”

Last month (December 21), the 1,600-MW Flamanville nuclear power plant near Normandy (below) began delivering electricity to the French and European grid. It became the first new unit in France’s once-aggressive nuclear power program since 1996. The new reactor becomes the 57^th in the French fleet.

EDF (Électricité de France) the French state-owned electric utility, was once seen as at the forefront of nuclear power, ahead in many ways of even the U.S., which has had its own troubles moving beyond its initial nuclear boom times. No more.

Construction of the advanced “European Pressurized Reactor” or EPR at Flamanville began in 2007. It was projected to come into service in 2012 at a cost of €3.3 billion (or about $3.4 billion). The final cost, according to EDF, is about €13.3 billion ($13.7 billion).

EDF’s Generation 111+ EPR, originally designed by French nuclear developer Areva, has meant a world of trouble for France and some of the other nations that have bought the machines. The first two reactors went to China, where Taishan 1 and Taishan 2 went into service in 2018 and 2019 respectively. While the Chinese are opaque about their nuclear program, the two EPR reactors suffered severe construction delays, taking almost twice the 46 months Areva projected. Taishan 1 was shut down between July 2021 and August 2022 for repairs.

EDF’s EPR experience in Europe, where information is more available and reputable, has been worse. Finland contracted for an EPR its existing nuclear site on Olkiluoto Island. Construction began in 2005 with operation planned for 2009, Olkiluoto 3 went into service in 2023 after multiple problems. The final cost came in at over €11 billion ($11.5 billion), much of that absorbed by Areva.

In Britain, EDF’s British subsidiary is building the two-unit, 3,200-MW Hinkley Point C EPR project. Hinkley Point has suffered similar woes to the other EPR projects. A year ago, EDF announced that the price tag for the two units would hit £41.6-£47.9 billion ($52.3 billion-$60.2 billion), with the first unit coming online in 2029-2031. That remains speculative.

Despite these problems, France is doubling down on nuclear, with a new, scaled-down 1,200-MW EPR design, know as EPR2. In 2022, President Emmanuel Macron announced an aggressive “renaissance” of French nuclear ambitions, starting with construction of six EPR2 units at its Penly site in northern France and another six to follow elsewhere. In July 2023, EDF filed an application with French nuclear regulators for approval of two EPR2 units at Penly.

Macron’s nuclear optimism has generated skepticism (and his government is on shaky grounds, not apparently related to his nuclear enthusiasm).

Veteran French wind energy financier and commentator Jérôme Guillet, who publishes an eponymous Substack newsletter Jérôme à Paris, has doubts about the future of the nukes. He wrote before Dec. 21 that

this is the last gasp of nuclear – maybe some people hope to see Flamanville being finally connected to the grid in France, and multiple PR stunts by Microsoft, Amazon et al. (which are just announcements of developments, i.e. highly conditional commitments to purchase electricity) as the start of a renaissance for the sector, but it’s more like a last gasp – in fact 2024 is most likely the year where wind+solar overtook nuclear in the USA, as well as coal.

Flamanville, he writes, “is likely one of the last nuclear plants to be built in Europe. Hinckley Point may be completed at some point in the future in the UK, but even in France the next ones are in doubt, with decisions on future investments postponed. “By the time any new nuclear plant in the West gets built, the transformation of our power systems towards renewables dominance will be over.”

Jerome is also dismissive of the specter of furious growth in electric demand, which is fueling much of the nuclear boosterism. “Despite all the breathless announcements about AI and data centers,” he observes, “overall demand is mostly stable in the US (increasing by 2% in 2024 after decreasing by the same in 2023), and shrinking fast in Europe.” He concludes:

Some are blaming European deindustrialization (and collective suicide caused by crazy green policies and/or naivety about Russia, (even if these are two contradictory and inconsistent arguments) but the trend predates the war in Ukraine. The reality is that we are continuously improving industrial processes while moving towards services, and a service economy is less energy intensive than a more primitive one. Even in emerging markets energy intensity is going down fast.

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This was originally posted at The Quad Report, the blog site of electricity expert Kennedy Maize.

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Source: https://www.masterresource.org/nuclear-power/french-nuclear-end-of-the-line/