Working out what Eurostar is going to do – based on the numbers, not what the company says

If you take what Eurostar has said in its press release, Alstom has said in its press release, and what has appeared in the FT and The Guardian among others yesterday, you end up with the impression that these Avelia Horizon double deck trains Eurostar is to order from Alstom are going to be everything to everyone. But not everything said about all of this can be true – because some of it contradicts.

So let’s break this all down using the numbers and what we know about Eurostar’s fleet, and see where that leads us.

I will start with only some basic facts from what was announced: that SNCF Voyageurs, for Eurostar, is going to order 30 Avelia Horizon double deck trains, and the first of these will run by 2031. After the initial 30, there is an option to order 20 more. These trains – in common with orders of this type for TGV services – the trains will be c. 200m long, with a power car at each end and 9 carriages in between. And I will work with the assumption that Eurostar wants to increase the capacity of the routes it will run (so it will not replace existing trains with smaller or lower capacity ones).

The length here is important. Trains c. 200m long can be coupled together to run as a double unit. Anything where an individual unit is longer than that cannot, and can only run as single units, as platforms at Paris Gare du Nord and Bruxelles Midi can accommodate maximum 400m long trains.

This is the fleet Eurostar currently has for Channel Tunnel services:

Type	Built	Length	Seats	Sets in service	Can run in
Class 373 (also known as TMST or e300)	1992-1996	394m	758	8	UK, FR, BE
Class 374 (also known as e320 or Siemens Velaro)	2011-2018	398.8m	902	17	UK, FR, BE, NL

So that amounts to 25 400m long trains.

And Eurostar’s ex-Thalys trains for services in continental Europe:

Type	Built	Length	Seats	Sets in service	Can run in
PBA	1993-1996	200m	377	9	FR, BE, NL
PBKA	1995-1998	200m	401*	17	FR, BE, NL, DE

So that amounts to 13 400m trains equivalent.

And then the new trains Eurostar is to order:

Type	Built	Length	Seats	Sets on order	Can run in
Avelia Horizon	2026 onwards	202m	540	30 (option for 20 more)	UK, FR, BE, NL, DE

That amounts to 15 400m trains equivalent.

Given that all of Eurostar’s 373s, PBAs and PBKAs will be more than 30 years old by 2031 when the first Avelia Horizon will be delivered, and 30 years is the expected life of a high speed train, Eurostar ideally needs to replace all of these trains. Only the Siemens 374s do not need an imminent replacement.

But you need 2 Avelia Horizons to replace 1 373. So you need 16 Avelia Horizon to replace the 373s, and 26 to replace the PBAs and PBKAs. So 42 Avelia Horizon trains for a complete replacement of the whole of the old fleet.

And Eurostar has ordered 30 Avelia Horizon, with an option for 20 more.

So the 30 trains Eurostar has committed to ordering from Alstom is too few to replace its entire old fleet.

So what is Eurostar going to do with just 30 trains?

Theory 1 – Replace only PBAs and PBKAs with Avelia Horizons

Replacing the existing 26 200m long trains with a fleet of 30 200m long trains looks like the simplest fit. All of the ex-Thalys routes are based on a 200m long train model at the moment, with trains often being coupled and uncoupled at Bruxelles Midi. Eurostar has never even operated a 2x 200m formation between Bruxelles and Köln, although it can between Amsterdam and Paris. Plus there are no known headaches with regard to approval of Avelia Horizon double deck trains on ex-Thalys routes in continental Europe, although the big step down into a Avelia Horizon designed for 55cm platforms at the 76cm platforms in Belgium and Netherlands could be a minor inconvenience.

The main downside to this outcome is the new trains would not be used to London at all, but given the potential headaches with the Channel Tunnel evacuation rules for a train without a continuous corridor throughout, and questionable door placement, this outcome strikes me as the most likely one.

Theory 2 – Replace PBAs and 373s with Avelia Horizons

Eurostar is still refurbishing its PBKA trains, but no such refurbishment for the PBA trains is foreseen. Eurostar would need 16 Avelia Horizon trains to replace the 8 373s, and 9 to replace the PBAs – 25 trains, and they have ordered 30.

This however is going to result in a rather complicated rolling stock situation, with Avelia Horizon operating some London – Paris trains (I presume, due to higher capacity than other trains), and 374s the rest to London, and some Paris – Bruxelles – Amsterdam and maybe even Paris – Bruxelles – Köln trains being run with Avelia Horizon too. But given one Avelia Horizon coupled with one PBKA will not work, that is going to result in some very complicated stock deployment on ex-Thalys lines.

Plus this outcome would mean Avelia Horizon would have to be OKed to run through the Channel Tunnel from the start.

Theory 3 – Replace PBAs and 373s with Avelia Horizons, and redeploy as many 374s as possible to Continental Europe routes

Eurostar could theoretically deploy all 30 Avelia Horizon trains on London routes, and move some of the Siemens 374s onto Continental European routes. But 374s cannot run to Germany, as they lack 15kV electrification to run there. So you would end up with a mix of Avelia Horizon and 374s on London routes, a mix of 374s and PBKAs on Paris – Bruxelles – Amsterdam, and PBKAs only on Paris – Bruxelles – Köln. That ends up with an outcome even messier than Theory 3 above.

Conclusion

The most obvious way for Eurostar to deploy 30 Avelia Horizon trains is to replace the entire ex-Thalys PBA and PBKA fleet. Any attempt to deploy the new trains to London from day one results in a much more complicated rolling stock situation, with a mix of three types of trains incompatible with each other to be used across all the routes.

If Eurostar ever orders the 20 additional 200m Avelia Horizon trains, those would then most obviously replace the 8 400m long 373 trains (as 16 Avelia Horizons are needed to replace 8 373s).

And the 8 “extra” Avelia Horizon trains (from 26 to 30 in the first tranche, from 16 to 20 in the second tranche) then would be used for route expansion.

* – assuming all Thalys PBKA receive the “Ruby” renovation

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Source: https://jonworth.eu/working-out-what-eurostar-is-going-to-do-based-on-the-numbers-not-what-the-company-says/