Silver is set to change the way all markets work, and start a catastrophic cascade across all commodities

There are many videos posted on this site and especially in the comments about how the economy is working,. or various metrics that indicate the health or the genuine actual mechanisms of the economy which are as occulted as everything else pretty much,

Personally I like this video because it states simple verifiable facts, and builds a model that is easy to follow and makes a lot of sense. But it also reflects a lot which we have heard from our site experts over the years as well, but now packaged in a way that gives a trajectory, leading to an outcome.

If anyone can correct the video on some of the facts or reasoning please don’t hesitate to do so in the comments. Anything really good we’ll move up into the post.

As of 2:40 PM December 24, 2025:

Here’s the most current spot price information available for silver related to the Shanghai market, as close to real-time as public data generally allows:

? Shanghai Silver Price (converted to USD per troy ounce) – ~Dec 24, 2025

Silver price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) converted into U.S. dollars per troy ounce is approximately:
**? ~ $78.55 USD/oz (this reflects Shanghai trading pricing, which can include local premiums)
GoldSilver.ai

Kitko Spot price: $71.85 USD

UPDATE: While the central thesis of this video is correct, there ARE mitigating factors. I will post Chat GPT’s analysis of the text of the video shortly. So while this video raises real points of concern, he may have overweighted the importance of the difference in the prices East Vs. West. The Eastern markets are not true free markets. Therefore are not always in alignment.

UPDATE 2:

As of 8:00 AM ET December 25th, the SGE, (Chinese exchange used as the basis for the video above) has actually gone down a dollar or so, (depending on how you do the exchange rate to USD) BELOW the COMEX. This tends to negate a large part of the argument in the video.

I sent the full text of the video to ChatGPT for analysis. It was interesting but not worth putting here in total. However today’s change in the relative pricing seemed interesting enough to ask GPT how it affects the argument he makes overall about Silver and the state of commodities. here is the answer in full.

How much of his argument depends on SGE > COMEX? 1. Structural argument (still intact)

Most of his analysis rests on mechanism, not on yesterday’s number:

• SGE represents physical settlement pressure

• COMEX represents paper leverage

• Arbitrage between the two is not frictionless

• Capital controls, delivery constraints, and contract structure delay equalization

That logic does not require SGE to always trade at a premium.
It only requires that persistent divergence is possible — which history clearly supports.

? This part still holds.

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2. Signal argument (temporarily weakened)

Where the reversal does matter is here:

“The SGE premium proves physical stress is intensifying right now.”

That claim depends on:

• SGE staying meaningfully above COMEX

• The spread being stable or widening

With the spread flipping from +7 USD ? ~-1 USD in ~24 hours:

• That specific stress signal is no longer confirmed

• It now looks more like short-term inventory or flow normalization, not escalation

?? This undermines the immediacy, not the theory.

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3. Equalization mechanism — still the key insight

Ironically, the reversal actually demonstrates one of his central points:

• Equalization does happen

• But it happens episodically, not smoothly

• And it often overshoots or snaps back

A fast reversal suggests:

• Metal was mobilized

• Or paper pressure temporarily dominated

• Or Chinese demand paused (holiday / liquidity / margin effects)

None of that contradicts his framework — it just shows the system breathing.

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Bottom line judgment

If we were grading the argument:

• Core thesis: ? Still solid

• Mechanics of divergence: ? Still valid

• Claim of current physical stress: ?? Weakened

• Predictive certainty / timeline: ? Overconfident

If this were your write-up, the correct framing would be:

“The SGE–COMEX spread is volatile and episodic; its temporary reversal does not refute the physical-paper divergence thesis, but it does caution against treating short-term premiums as linear indicators of systemic stress.”

That’s a stronger, more defensible position.

Source: https://vladtepesblog.com/2025/12/24/silver-is-set-to-change-the-way-all-markets-work-and-start-a-catastrophic-cascade-across-all-commodities/