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An adequate response to a Covid pandemic needs more views than what epidemiologists and statisticians can provide.

Sunday, December 3, 2023 20:02

% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

Sir, I refer to “Please put statisticians in charge of data for the next crisis” Sir David Norgrove, FT November 11.

July 2020, I tweeted:

Sweden kept all schools until 9th grade open. Parents of children in 9th grade are almost always less than 50 years of age. In Sweden, as of July 24, out of 5,687 Coronavirus deaths 71, 1.2%, were younger than 50 years.

Conclusion: Keep schools open, keep older teachers at home and have grandparents refrain from hugging their grandchildren. Disseminating data on COVID-19 without discriminating by age, is in essence misinformation.

https://x.com/PerKurowski/status/1287748338440314881?s=20

I had obtained the data for the above from: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

October 2020 the Washington Post published a letter in which I opined:

“Roughly 90% of all coronavirus deaths will occur in those 60 years of age and older.

Equally roughly 90% of the virus’s social and economic consequences will be paid by those younger than 60. It’s an intergenerational conflict of monstrous proportions.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/letters-to-the-editor/would-pursuing-herd-immunity-be-worth-it/2020/10/20/05a4f250-0fd0-11eb-b404-8d1e675ec701_story.html

March 2021 I tweeted:

“Georges Clemenceau’s “War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men” could be updated to: A Covid-19 response ‘is too serious a matter to entrust’ to epidemiologist”

https://twitter.com/PerKurowski/status/1373976328001687552?s=20

At this moment I feel that besides not entrusting epidemiologists I might have to include some statisticians e.g., from the UK Statistic Authority. They must have known it, so why did they not speak up?

June 2023 I asked ChatGPT-OpenAI:

“Suppose a virus hits a nation, and to its authorities it’s evident that its mortality rate depends the most on age. In such a case, transmitting data to the population about the total number of deaths without discriminating this by age, could that be deemed to be misinformation?”

A.I. answered:

“In the scenario you described, if the authorities have clear evidence that the mortality rate of the virus is significantly influenced by age, transmitting data about the total number of deaths without providing any information or context about age distribution could be considered incomplete or potentially misleading information”

https://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2023/06/ai-chatgpt-openai-if-mortality-rate-of.html

Sir David Norgrove ends his opinion with “Churchill recognized the need for high quality statistics to help him run the war.”

In March 2020 I tweeted:

“In February, I visited Churchill War Rooms in London Reading UK’s plans of building up herd immunity against coronavirus, I have a feeling Winston would have agreed with such stiff upper lip policy: “I have nothing to offer but fever, coughing, chills and shortness of breath”

https://twitter.com/PerKurowski/status/1241749198971850758?s=20

Now I ask you Sir. Is this not a kind of document that should be presented to any Covid type of inquiry that, without fear and without favour, really dares to get to the bottom of the problems?

@PerKurowski

Source: http://teawithft.blogspot.com/2023/11/an-adequate-response-to-covid-needs.html

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