ES Morning Update July 23rd 2024
Ok, we got the bounce as expected, which could go higher still as the RSI and MACD’s on the 6 hour chart have plenty of room to run higher. But, I tend to think this rally up will be an ABC and that we are just in the A wave now. I won’t know until I see what happens on the next pullback, but I lean toward it being a higher low (the B wave) and then another C wave up into the end of this week or into the end of this month.
It looks too strong of a bounce to be a wave 4 with a wave 5 down still left to come… which would then complete the A wave down. I think the A wave down already ended at the recent low as it’s a clean looking 5 wave pattern and again… this bounce is too strong for a wave 4. Keep in mind that most (not all) C waves subdivide into 5 smaller waves. So if we are in an A up inside an ABC of a bigger B wave then the C part could drag out into the end of this month.
The Seasonality Chart has been off some this year but does get back on track after brief periods of not being in-sync. the middle of July is a choppy (pause type) period and we did get the recent pullback from the 16th to the 19th, so that’s close to working. The first part of July is bullish and that worked out perfectly, and the last part of July is bullish, so that’s when we could see the C wave up inside the B wave. Then the first week of August is bearish, so that could be the C wave inside the C wave to complete the ABC down from the 5721 high. Here’s what I’m thinking…
Have a blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2024/07/23/es-morning-update-july-23rd-2024/
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