ES Morning Update August 2nd 2024
Looks like the market decided it did want a triple bottom after all. I guess the overall bearish pressure from the weekly chart is keeping the rallies from lasting more then a day or so. Interestingly there was a FP on the QQQ from Wednesday that hit on the pullback, which I wasn’t sure or not if that was going to happen or not after such a powerful rally from the Tuesday low.
But it did indeed hit yesterday, so now we need to give it a few days to see if it’s going to hold or not? Triple bottoms can fail more often then double bottoms as support is weaker, but even if it does fail I would not a expect a huge drop to follow, and would instead expect it to be a stop run on the bulls ONLY that got long from it yesterday. I don’t see it starting the bigger C wave down… not yet.
I could be wrong on that but so far the drop just looks like the last wave down inside the bigger A wave, which would be a wave 5 with the squeeze wave from Tuesday being the wave 4 inside that A down.
The A wave should have 5 waves inside it, which it clearly has right now. I thought it was finished at the double bottom low and that we were starting the bigger B wave up on Tuesday, but that was wrong it seems as A down clearly wasn’t finished.
The FP on the QQQ being hit now suggests we will go back up soon, as from my history of Fake Prints they usually are pierced and then a “turn” happens. Now that “turn” could be short lived, like a few days, or a multi-week one, there’s no way to know how long it will be.
And if another FP is put out shortly afterwards then of course the “turn” will be short lived but still served it’s purpose by fulfilling the FP and turning from it. I don’t see any new FP’s currently, so my lean is that we turn back up shortly… like by Monday at the latest, if not sooner.
Have a great weekend.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2024/08/02/es-morning-update-august-2nd-2024/
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