ES Morning Update August 8th 2024

We have 2 possible scenario’s in play now. The first one projects a bottom sooner, like possibly this Friday It is where the rally up has finished and we are in the last move down now. I believe it is a wave 4 inside a larger A wave down and if the low is taken out we could see a flush down to the FP on the SPY of 483, but again… I don’t have any history to track how accurate FP’s from Yahoo are, so I’ll just be keeping it in the back of my mind and watching the price action and the technicals.

Time of day is important too as we all know the common pattern the market does late on Fridays. Meaning that if we are at a new lower low late in the day but not to the FP that could be all we’ll get? Now since this correction is unfolding in a 5 wave decline it’s a strong clue that we won’t make another new higher high on the next big rally as a 5 wave decline will only be a bigger A wave and NOT a completed ABC to end the correction. It will suggest we’ll rally up late August and into September for a bigger B wave to setup a C wave down for October. Here’s that chart…

The other scenario is that the wave 4 up isn’t finished yet and that it’s going to subdivide into an ABC where the rally the last few days was the A part and the B part started yesterday. Once it finishes the C wave up will go into late next week like around the 16th or 19th. From there we’ll get the final 5th wave down to possibly hit the 483 fake print and complete the bigger A wave. After that we would still rally the rest of August and a lot of September for the bigger B wave, which still sets up October for the big drop. Here’s that chart…

One of these scenario’s is likely to play out in my opinion. And the first move up from the bottom of the bigger A wave will be a powerful one, but that will only be part of that bigger B wave as it will subdivide into many, many smaller waves to frustrate bulls and bears alike. Time will be the key to watch and focus on as I think it will last at least a month, probably longer.

We’ll likely squeak out a slightly higher high on some of the indexes but not all, which will fool everyone into thinking it’s over and we are off to 6000+, but I don’t see that happening if we make a 5th wave down this week or next. Now if we don’t then the correction might have finished as there will only be an ABC move and therefore the low we saw on Monday ended it all. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Have a blessed day.