ES Morning Update September 30th 2024
This week is where a pullback should happen, which might me late this week and carry into next week. But after that we should have one more way up to finish everything before we get a large pullback. This top could come before the end of this month or drag out right into the election, it’s hard to say which. A lot will be determined by how much the coming pullback will be, which I guess it could be down to the 533.01 new FP on the SPY but that just seems too deep for the current wave count. I put that count out last week and below is that chart.
I have the wave 4 going down to that FP but again, I think that’s too low. I don’t see the falling white trendline breaking, which is around the 5630-5670 zone. I don’t see any more then that as any deeper will kill the uptrend momentum, and that’s about all you should see for a wave 4 down I think. So, if that white trendline holds, and I think it will, then we could see the last rally up end before the election I think, and I do think that’s most likely. It just seems too obvious to top out right into the election as everyone is expecting it. A top in late October and drop into the election could get the A wave down out the way, and a B up after the election for a few days, then a C down into mid-late November. This is more common as it will trick the masses because a B wave up after a Trump win will make everyone think it’s like 2016 when he won, but in reality it will just be a short lived bounce inside an ABC down.
For this week we might be choppy early on and the late this week we get some pullback, and again I don’t see much more then the falling white trendline on my chart. I don’t see this pullback as tradable and will just wait for that last move up later October for the best shorting opportunity.
Have a blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2024/09/30/es-morning-update-september-30th-2024/
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