ES Morning Update September 6th 2024

Today I’m going to go over the possibility that the market could have already topped. I do not lean this way though as the prior patterns and technicals really don’t support it, but I’ll cover it anyway. Let’s look a the chart below…

Now while that chart does have a lot of things that seem to align up with the January 2022 high I want to go a little deeper and look at other things that point to another higher high coming after we get a lower low, double bottom, or higher low then the August 5th 2024 low… but the large “crash like” drop that could play out in October or November would be delayed until a new high happens first. Meaning we’d have another rally up to higher high again before we rollover for that “crash style” drop. Let’s examine the chart below…

One of the biggest things that supports this is the fact that we are no where near the 200 day simple moving average currently, which back in February of 2022 that drop for the smaller wave 3 (and the smaller wave 1) was under the 200 SMA. When I study that weekly chart of the past we currently appear to be similar to the 12/15/21-12/20/21 pullback. While the market never repeats exacts the patterns do “rhyme” and I tend to think that’s where we are right now. If so, then we have one more higher high coming before we drop like 2022 did.

Now let’s look at another interesting clue on the monthly chart below…

Again, while the market never repeats exactly the technicals still suggest to me that there’s one more higher high coming before we start a much larger drop, which could be similar to 2022 or follow some other prior correction like 2020 or 2018 even. That’s too hard to forecast, so let’s just focus on the short term for now.

Lastly let’s look at the weekly chart below…

When you examine the daily, weekly and monthly chart all the technicals point to another recession coming soon in the market, which should carry into early 2025 from everything I can see. Only another fast crash like 2020 prevent the first quarter of 2025 from being bearish as otherwise this market is going to need 4-6 months to cool down the very overbought conditions on the monthly and weekly charts.

Have great weekend.