ES Morning Update October 15th 2024

This market is just not looking like it’s going to give the bears any chance at getting out with a small pullback. It’s possible that the wave 4 down that I keep thinking is coming has already played out over the last couple of weeks as a sideways wave. If so, we are in the final 5th wave up now and any pullbacks from here will be small, like maybe 30-50 points? Below is the 2 hour chart with those adjusted waves on them.

With this main wave count we are in the final 5th wave up, which suggest it will top a little above 6000, like at my FET of 6082.46, but it just doesn’t feel right. I think there’s too much time left in the month and that we will go higher. Below is an alternative wave count that explains it better.

In this alternative wave count we could “pause” around the FET of 6009.50 with a brief pullback for Small Wave 4 as Small Wave 3 up is still in play (which I had it completed on the main wave count). That pullback should be quick and afterwards we’ll get one last squeeze for Small Wave 5 up, which possibly hits my crazy FET of 6435?

That FET is based on shorter moves of course, and may or may not be the level it stops at before a pullback for Small Wave 4, which the other FET of interest is 6082, as I covered on yesterdays long post.

I’ve added in some Tiny Waves and Extra Tiny Waves to guess at how it could unfold. The FET’s of interest for possibly tops of S3 are at 6009 and 6082. One of those targets should be where this market stops at and pulls back for S4. Then S5 will follow and depending on how much “time” is left will give better clues as to whether we end it all at the 6189 FET or the 6435 one.

Lastly I want to point out that the Nasdaq, both cash and futures, are quite close now to making a new all time high.  The coming double top with them is likely going to line up with the ES hitting one of my Fibonacci Extension Targets, which I’d lean toward the 6082 one, possibly the 6189, but I give it lower odds.

So, once we see the NDX and/or the /NQ hit (slight pierce) a new all time high we should be close on the ES to the FET of 6082, and that should be the point where we (finally) get a pullback for wave 4, and then one more squeeze up into the end of this month (or the election?) to reach either my FET at 6189 or 6435.

Have a blessed day.