ES Morning Update October 3rd 2024

The market most likely finished Small Wave 4 down early yesterday, which puts us in Small Wave 5 up now. Of course it will have 5 Tiny Waves inside it, but it’s not worth trying to macro manage (guess) on those kinds of moves… in my opinion at least. I think it’s better to just wait for Small Wave 5 to finish, which will finish Medium Wave 3 up too.

Again, I think it will make a slightly higher high to hit the stops above 5830 on the ES and odds still suggest it will happen after the Non-Farm Payroll Report on Friday. And we could see the early part of the day hold up there around that new high in the cash market for awhile (remember that the report is released an hour before the open so the squeeze will play out then). But that rally up should NOT hold all day and should rollover and start down into the close. It might not be a lot but it should be back down in the 5750-5800 area, and of course that move will just be the start of Medium Wave 4 down.

Naturally it will unfold in an ABC move, so the first drop will be the A wave down, which will be a Small Wave. On a smaller scale it should unfold in 5 Tiny Waves, and most likely will be finished by next Monday or Tuesday (best guess of course). After that would be a fast squeeze up for the Small B Wave, which I don’t think will last more then one day. Lastly will be Small Wave C down, which might have 5 waves inside it (Tiny Waves) but many times they are hard to count as C waves can look more like a straight line down when on the small and tiny scale.

The drop into the 8/5 low to complete Large Wave 4 was Medium Wave C down, and it looks like one long wave, so I have to think it could look similar for a small wave too. This looks like it might complete by next Thursday (or Friday) and then we rally up into OPEX the following week to start Large Wave 5 with 6000+ as the final high… and that could be right into the election?

The next FOMC meeting is the day after on Wednesday November the 6th, so if there’s ever going to be a large drop will be after that time period as both events will be blamed for it. As for the coming low price target for next week I still think it will be higher then the 5394 low on 9/6 as Medium Wave 4 should not go lower then that low for Medium Wave 2.

If I had to guess I’d say we’ll pierce 5600 and hit the mid-5500 zone and that’s all. After that should rally but again, it will be choppy for a week as the Small and Tiny Wave 1 up and 2 down carve out, which will align up a Wave 3 later this month, and that’s all inside Large Wave 5 up. I think this month is going to fool a lot of people as while I still think we have a fast “crash like” drop coming I think it won’t happen until after the final high of 6000+, which should be into the election.

Have a blessed day.