ES Morning Update November 6th 2024

Tuesday Evening Update…

We finally turned up and started the bounce for Tiny Wave C inside Small Wave B, which hit the 580.01 FP on the SPY in the afterhours Tuesday night.  If all goes as expected we’ll rollover by the close Wednesday to start the first of 5 tiny waves for Small Wave C inside Medium Wave 4, which I think is going to the 533.01 FP on the SPY and that it could be hit by early next week.

So far so good as far as the market going mostly as I thought it would. If it continues we should see some kind of news come out to blame the drop on in the coming days (possibly today?). But when we hit the downside FP I’ll be looking for a long as from there we should rally hard into early December and I think we’ll see 6100+ hit.

Tuesday Night Update…

The 580.01 was hit and the market has completed pushed through it as if it wasn’t even there.  Those intraday fake prints are tough to figure out as they could also be just a late fill as most of the time they point to a closing or opening prior level.  That could be the case here as it seems non-important now.

The other fake prints, which are way away from any recent level, are much more accurate from past history.  They do hit at some point and mark a “turning point”, which might be a long lasting one (weeks or months) or a short lived one (days or weeks) but they do work.  I’ve been tracking them since I got the first one back in 2010, so they are real.

But the intraday one’s are just levels of interest that the market wants to hit but not always “turn” at.  That must be the case with the 580.01 intraday FP as it meant nothing when it came to stopping the bull squeeze going on right now, which is heading for a new all time high it seems, but is slowing down momentum right now.

Morning Update…

WOW!  What an amazing rally! And more important a Trump HUGE Victory with getting the majority in the Senate and holding Congress too.  This is great.  As for the market we’ve made a new all time high on the ES and the YM (Dow), but not quite yet on the NQ, which is very close but I don’t know if it’s going to make it or not?

I mean, we’ve ran the stops on the ES now with a new high, so there might not be much more left on the upside before a pullback.  Upside resistance is just a hair under 6000 today and that’s from a rising white trendline, which of course will be higher tomorrow.  One of my FET’s is at 6009.50, so that’s a target too.

I don’t see it going all the way up to the 6100+ target yet as usually there’s a pullback after a new high.  You know the ol’ saying… when you see a “Double Top” you “Sell A Double Top”.  But my focus will be on the technicals, which include turn dates, FP’s and FET’s of course.  Now if the Nasdaq can make a new all time high, which would run the stops above it, then I’d say we’ve topped and will start a pullback.

Maybe we see that happen going into the FOMC tomorrow?  There’s nothing to cause a move down yet, but the Fed could send it down by something they say or do.  I know the downside coming low is the 533.01 SPY level but I don’t know where or when we top before we start that move down.  For now there’s nothing to do until we see some exhaustion.

Have a blessed day.