ES Morning Update January 16th 2025
Yesterdays CPI sparked off the short squeeze as the bears didn’t get that last flush out move lower first. I do think it continues, even “if” we get a pullback from the jobs numbers this morning, which we may or may not get?
This rally is strong and can continue up today and tomorrow until it hits a brick wall at one of the resistance zones overhead. It’s more of a “feel” on which one will stop the bulls, as the 1/7 high of 6068 on the ES is the first magnet but then we have the 6105 high from 12/25 and finally the current all time high. The rate at which the market is moving suggests the first resistance won’t hold and that the bulls will push through it, meaning the 6105-6163 zone is where the most resistance will be and we could see it reached by the 20th.
Here’s a chart I posted on X (Twitter) yesterday…
If so, everyone is going to short it as it’s a double top area, and unfortunately it’s just too early for that to “mark” the final top and the start of the next big move down… which isn’t expected to start until early February. That means there’s a lot of time left between the 20th and around 3rd/4th of next month.
This tells me that any pullback after the coming double top zone should NOT be the start of the big move down, as it should be reversed back up into the first week of February… and it’s going to get tricky after the double top as I need to see how far it pulls back to try and figure out how high the rally will be into the 3rd/4th.
I’m going to remain open for the blow off top to 6500+ to play out as with that much time left it’s possible that it could happen. Of course if the pullback after the 20th is deep enough then maybe the move back up will just make a triple top? It’s really hard to know for sure… especially this early on in the move. First we need to see the rally reach the double top zone into the end of this week (roughly), and then we need to see the pullback.
That’s the big picture, and as for the short term I’m still looking higher today and tomorrow, even if we get a quick drop after the Jobs Number.
Have a blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/01/16/es-morning-update-january-16th-2025/
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