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XLE: S&P 500 Energy Sector SPDR is cheap and underowned

Tuesday, January 14, 2025 9:49

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Squeezy

Oil took out the short term negative trend early this year. Since then it has squeezed, and is pushing above the longer term negative trend line as of writing. Note we are well above the 200 day, but approaching the first bigger resistance area that comes in $1.5 higher.

Source: Refinitiv

Overbought

Oil at the most overbought levels since September 2023.

Source: Refinitiv

Oil & XLE

Oil is not energy, but there is obviously a huge read across. XLE continues to lag…

Source: Refinitiv

XLE as a hedge

The following chart of 1-year trailing returns for XLE from 2000 to the present shows when this group truly generates outsized annual returns.

Data Trek: “we reiterate our longstanding view that Energy stocks are always a sensible equal weight (3-4 percent of US/global stocks) in a diversified equity portfolio. If there is a geopolitical event that causes much higher oil prices, history shows that no other sector will hedge a portfolio better than this group. ”

Source: Data Trek

Buyback king

The energy sector is the buyback king (European data).

Source: Barclays

Cheap

Energy sector remains very cheap vs. the market.

Source: Barclays

Under-owned

Energy is not well owned.

Source: EPFR

Source: https://totalinvestor.blogspot.com/2025/01/xle-s-500-energy-sector-spdr-is-cheap.html

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