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Buy the Cannons: Exploring the Bull Case

Sunday, June 22, 2025 14:25

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Preface: Explaining our market timing models

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don’t buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 16-May-2025)*
Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 14-Apr-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

The Minority Report

As we write these words, the U.S. has chosen to enter the war against Iran. The extremely thin contract-for-difference trading for the Dow is down about -1%. Is this a time to embrace the contrarian adage of “buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets”?

I have been fairly cautious about the U.S. equity market, but like all good investors, I would like to consider the bull case. While my base case still calls for a trading range for the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year, and the index is still flashing a negative RSI divergence warning, I am open to the possibility that stock prices could break out to all-time highs. I estimate the odds of that bullish as one-in-three or four.

Here are my reasons to be bullish.

The full post can be found here.

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.

Source: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2025/06/buy-cannons-exploring-bull-case.html

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Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world. Anyone can join. Anyone can contribute. Anyone can become informed about their world. "United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

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