ES Morning Update July 16th 2025

The CPI yesterday did not cause some big drop, but we did see a small move down, which still looks like chop when you zoom out. Possibly it’s the start of an ABC pattern similar to the 1/18/11 to 1/28/11 pattern? It won’t repeat exactly of course but since I have the upside FP of 655.66 on the SPY I know where the most important high will be at.

Between now and then we could continue to chop up and down for weeks until that final push to hit it happens. I don’t know the “when” part but I still think it’s early in August. For the short term, we could drift a little low to get the short term charts oversold and support below won’t be damaged unless we break the recent lows around 6240, if that breaks we could drop to the low 6100′s pretty fast.

I don’t think it’s going to happen, but anything is possible I guess. I’ve tried many times in the past several weeks to short this market but it never broke down and gave me the 7-8% pullback. So I’ve come to conclusion that it probably won’t happen until we reach the upside FP on the SPY. So I’m just going to patiently wait for it to happen.

The Alternative Scenario…

If I’m wrong, on where we are currently when compared to the 2010/11 pattern, then we a little past the 2/18/11 high and starting the 7-8% pullback into a low like the 3/14/11 low.  That decline was an ABC and of course we would be in the A part now.  There was a choppy B wave from 2/14/11 to 3/4/11 back then before the C down happened.

The whole move back then was about 28 days, and if we are running about 3 times as fast now we could do it all now in 8-9 days.  But that’s just a guess as we don’t have to continue to repeat everything at 3 times the speed.  Patterns can repeat closer and it could take 28 days this time around too.

If we are in this spot instead of the 1/18/11 to 1/31/11 area then we might bottom for the C wave into the end July.  We’ll have to just watch next week to see how the rally back up plays out.  If it stalls out and doesn’t make a new all time high again, I’d have to start thinking we are indeed further along in the pattern and in this alternative scenario instead of the 1/18/11-1/31/11 period.

Have an blessed day.