ES Morning Update August 1st 2025

Bummer… I really thought we could reach the FP this week but it looks like they are going to drag this out into the next week or the week after. This pullback looks like it will continue into early-mid next week and it could reach the 6250-6300 area, but I don’t see much more. It’s only going to tease the bears and get them all super short so they can use them as fuel for the last squeeze up, which the window for that top is of course going to be OPEX week.

The 11th/12th is the ideal top but with it being OPEX that Friday the 15th it might drag into that date. For this pullback it should end by next Thursday at the latest, and will probably be a choppy ABC mess. I’m not interested in taking any positions until the FP on the SPY is hit and that’s up around the 6600′s on the ES, which again, is not looking likely to hit this week.

I will continue to wait patiently as I know it’s coming soon, and while it might happen in September I give that low odds now. I am now open for the September 18th date to be a bottom, instead of a top for a B wave bounce. I say that because if we top out in the OPEX week of August it will take about a month to do an ABC down, and that opens the door for September to be a low, which will fool the masses looking for an October crash.

The September 18th date WILL be a very important date… but maybe it’s a low, not a high? I’m open minded to either but right now time is running thin on the top, the drop for the A wave and the rally for the B wave and another drop for a C… which all make an A wave, followed by an ABC up for a B wave, to all play out into that date.

I think I’m going to have to toss out the idea of an abc A down, abc B up, and 5 wave C to unfold and instead we will just see an A down, B up and C down that bottoms on September 18th. Sure, they will have smaller degree waves inside them, but my bigger ABC is on that would take about 3 months and would reach the 5300′s to close those gaps on the ES. Now it’s looking like this will unfold in a little over one month. I guess we could see drop that low but “time” is running out and if we only have a month, and we start at 6600+ the drop might only be to the 588.79 FP on the SPY, and the gap fills on the ES won’t happen until after the final blow off top to 7000-8000 into early next year. Too much to speculate about right now for the big picture. I’ll only say that I’m not doing anything until I see the 655.66 FP on the SPY hit.

Have a great weekend.