ES Morning Update August 25th 2025

We didn’t get the flush out first and squeeze afterwards that I was hoping for unfortunately.  I would have loved to have got long on it last Friday if it would have happened.  But the market just went straight for the squeeze. That’s fine with me as I’ve been waiting for weeks now for the FP on the SPY to get hit and it’s looking like it will be hit early this week… maybe today, who’s knows?

It’s a big short in my opinion as my history of these big FP’s (one’s that are way away from the current price when they come out) are that they are pretty much guaranteed to produce a turn. The intraday FP’s are hit and miss… some hit the next day and some don’t do anything as the market just ignores them.

They are “late fills” in most cases when they are close to the price level the market was at a day or so prior. But FP’s that are no where near the current price levels are real “fake prints” that will be hit at some point in the future. This 655.66 FP came out on December 16th, 2024 and the price of the SPY was nowhere near it at the time, so it was (and “is”) a real FP.

It’s finally going to get hit this week it seems and we will get a “turn” back down from it. How much is anyone’s guess but I think we could pullback to the FP from June 24th, 2025… which is 588.79, and when it came out the market was in an uptrend and had not see that price since June 2nd, 2025. This mean it’s NOT a “late fill”, as I’ve never seen a late fill that was done 22 days later.

No… they are always done with 24 hours (maybe 48 hours), but never 22 days. That is a real FP in my opinion and “could” be the target for the coming pullback? Again, I don’t know the “when” part on any FP’s but the market is ripe for a nice correction that gets the bears all woke up again and calling for a crash. But if this move down happens fast enough it will get the charts nice and oversold and that tells me it will be the end of the down move and that last rally up to 7400+ should follow.

NVDA has earnings after the close this Wednesday, so it could be used for that last move up to the FP on the SPY… that’s assuming we don’t hit it beforehand as then it might be used to tank the market.  Either way, once the FP is hit it’s GO TIME for the Bears as we can see a 10% pullback happen before it’s all done.

Have an blessed day.