ES Morning Update August 6th 2025
Again, the market is doing as expected with the waves, but it rarely works out this smoothly. There’s usually some tricks that try to get traders trapped on the wrong side before the real move, which too me is the squeeze for the wave 3 inside the wave 5 up.
It still should start from a low this Thursday but of course I could be off a day and maybe it happens on Friday? But for now we appeared to have ended the wave 1 up inside wave 5 and started the ABC pullback for the wave 2 down. We “might” have finished the A wave and if so, there’s a B up coming that should not take out the recent high for wave 1 (6377 ES), which then leaves the C down to follow, which then will complete the wave 2 down.
Oddly, this is lining up for the ol’ “Pit Bull Low (coined phase by Marty Schwartz)” where back in the old days (before daily options, when there was only the monthly one’s) it was common to see the market bottom on the Thursday/Friday of the week prior to OPEX week. Market Makers would sell “puts” to the retail and then squeeze the market back up into the 3rd Friday (again… OPEX week) to make all the puts expire worthless. Then the market would do the best pullback after OPEX week ended, which is usually the last week of the month. This is lining up to happen again it seems as (if) we hit the upside FP of 655.66 into OPEX week the following week should have a really nice drop. How much I don’t know?
But if it’s slow then the 588.79 FP is probably all we’ll see. If that is hit too fast, like into the end of the month, I’d look for another drop later in September to the 5300′s to fill that gap on it. From there we should rally hard into the rest of the year. Several different paths the market could take but this is looking quit possible.
Have an blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/08/06/es-morning-update-august-6th-2025/
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