ES Morning Update September 3rd 2025
Horizontal support held yesterday and we rallied back up half the decline. It’s hard to figure out the wave count but I suspect we ended a wave 4 of some medium degree at the 8/4 low and we have been in a final wave 5 up ever since then. It’s final target should be the 655.66 FP on the SPY but it’s been chopping up and down on the way up to frustrate bulls and bears alike.
Possibly the pullback yesterday was a small wave 4 inside a medium wave 5 up? Or it’s just part of a small wave 3 up from that 8/4 low where medium wave 5 up likely started? I’m just guessing that the small wave 1 up ended at the 6508 high on 8/15 and the pullback from it was a small wave 2… leaving the market in a small wave 3 up now. But it could have ended at the 6523 high, I don’t know?
That would be a truncated wave 3, which I don’t think is likely as it’s not long enough when compared to the small wave 1 up. It was from 6251 to 6508, and that’s 257 points, so if small wave 3 up started from the 6364 low on 8/22 then it would have to hit 6621 for small wave 3 to equal small wave 1, and that would hit (and pierce) the 655.66 FP on the SPY, which should complete the entire move.
But, small wave 4 down and small wave 5 up would still be needed to complete medium wave 5, and large wave 5 (from the April low where it all started. I guess that’s possible as there’s no rule with FP’s that say they can’t be hit once and retested again later. Meaning we could double top basically with small wave 3 and 5 both hitting and piercing the FP. Anyway, nothing to do (at least for me) but wait as I’m not shorting until the FP is hit.
Have an blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/09/03/es-morning-update-september-3rd-2025/
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