Speculation 2.0: The Rise of Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets are the next big thing.

Online marketplaces where you can bet on almost anything.

For example, will the U.S. seize another Venezuelan oil tanker by December 31st? Right now Polymarket speculators assign a 29% chance to this outcome.

Source: Polymarket

Here’s how it works. If you think that the U.S. will seize another Venezuelan ship by the end of year, you buy a “yes” contract at around $.32 (there is a spread because volume is limited on some contracts). If it happens, you get paid out $1 for every “yes” contract you bought.

So far, Polymarket has emerged as the dominant player. But Polymarket is mostly a crypto/stablecoin-based prediction market. And it’s not fully open to U.S. bettors just yet. But it will be soon.

Kalshi is the big established U.S. prediction market, and it’s already fully licensed. They’re the leader here in the States.

On Kalshi, you can currently bet on whether President Trump will buy at least part of Greenland before January 20th 2029. Right now the market is assigning a 21% chance to that outcome.

Source: Kalshi

More than $2 million in volume has already been bet on this contract. It will be decided by the New York Times. In other words, if they report that Trump bought at least part of Greenland, the yes bettors win.

On Kalshi, you can also bet on who Trump will nominate as Fed Chair. Or even how many cases of the plague there will be in the U.S. this year. Sports outcomes. Almost anything is now a bettable event.

Absolutely wild.

A Flood of New Markets

In 2025, an estimated $45 billion was bet on prediction markets. And it’s just getting started.

There is a FLOOD of new prediction market offerings coming to U.S. investors. Established players in crypto, online trading, and even sports betting are entering the race:

• Robinhood
• Coinbase
• Gemini
• Fanduel
• Draftkings

All these companies are rolling out their own version of prediction markets. And there will certainly be many more in 2026. I can’t see any major brokerage firm missing out on this mega-trend. Everybody’s going to want their own offering, and soon.

Insider Trading Concerns

Because prediction markets are so new, much of the legality around insider trading is a gray area.

For example, an insider in the Trump administration who knows that the U.S. is on the verge of purchasing Greenland could make a tidy sum betting on the yes contract on Kalshi.

I suspect it would technically be illegal, but the laws aren’t completely clear yet.

This opens up a whole new can of worms. It’s going to be tricky regulating this nascent market, because to effectively police it, you’d have to essentially have total surveillance of all the users. And that’s impossible (hopefully).

For example, Kalshi has an entire section where you can bet on specific companies. How many cars will Tesla sell this quarter? Bettable. And for insiders, that’d be an easy way to make some cash.

Speculation Nation

The incredible growth of prediction markets is a sign of the times. We are a nation obsessed with speculation and gambling.

And now we can gamble on almost anything, 24/7. Interestingly, I suspect that the rapid growth of these markets is at least partially responsible for the recent correction in crypto markets. Prediction bets are the shiny new object, and at least for a while, it appears to be stealing the spotlight from crypto.

Prediction markets are here to stay. But there is reason to be wary of them. Before you go and start betting on things, be aware that the person on the other side of that bet might have insider information.

Despite these concerns, I am fascinated by these new markets. And in 2026, we’ll explore them more.

I’m planning to open an account on one of these new platforms and give it a spin soon. I will keep readers updated with what I discover.

Merry Christmas, dear readers. I hope you all have an excellent holiday.

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