ES Morning Update February 13th 2026
My target date zone between the 9th-12th failed to play out, and we saw the low hit the 5th instead. I was looking for a low this week and then we go up into OPEX next week, with the 20th being the ideal date for the high. I have that FP on the SPY of 660.08, which I was thinking we would see this week. Since then, they have put out some new FP’s that are much lower.
Multiple FP’s show a high of 695.77, which was hit on this rally this week. The other FP’s on the screenshot from February 6th show downside targets of %642.83, $640.13, $627.03, $640.13, $642.83 and $639.11… which is much lower then the 660.08 prior FP. I’m puzzled on when they are going to hit, and which one? Since the cycles point up next week, into the 20th (maybe into the 23rd/24th), I can’t see the move down to the FP’s starting until after that date. Below is those FP’s again…
This FP was put out on January 14th…
The New FP’s were put out on February 6th…
Between now and the 20th-24th I have to think the market is going to frustrate bulls and bears alike without breaking out huge to SPY 700 and not breaking down hard either. Could we see the 700 level hit before then? Of course. It’s still a big magnet with tons of calls at that level.
It will be super hard to get through it, but it’s also pulling the market up to it. Possibly we see chop next week and one last “hurrah” move up to finally hit that 700 magnet. They won’t make this easy or obvious. Cycles say next week is bullish, but with that wall of calls around the 700 level there’s not much left on the upside… if it gets there at all? Most likely we chop with only small pullbacks, which get bought up fast, and then some last move up between the 20th-24th to hit the 700 SPY level. Once all those calls are sold that magnet will go away and then we can see the next move down happen into around March 2nd-4th, where we could (should) see “at least” that 660.08 FP on the SPY.
The BIG Picture…
The Medium Term Picture…
I posted a chart on X yesterday near the low, which is still valid. We should go up into next week. Here’s that chart again…
Have a great weekend.
Source: https://reddragonleo.com/2026/02/13/es-morning-update-february-13th-2026/
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