ES Morning Update February 6th 2026

We are close to a short term bottom I think, but it looks like the last low will be late next week. The market did rally this week and put in the high on Monday, 2/3… which was a little earlier then my target date of 2/4. But I did short it as I just felt that it wasn’t going to make a new higher high for a final 5th wave as posted on my chart from last Friday. When I did that chart I labeled that final wave 5 up as “T5″, which would end “S1″, and then we should start the ABC correction down to the 660.08 FP on the SPY. But the low on that chart for ETC inside T4 got taken out on 2/2, and “that chart” with that wave count, was screenshot and created on 1/30, where the low wasn’t taken out. That chart is below for reference.

Wave Count From 1/30/2026

What does it mean you ask?

It means that it moves the projected high for S1 back to the T3 high, as that’s where we hit 7043 on the ES, which was on 1/28/2026.  I have bounced back and forth between that being the high, or one more higher high into around 2/4, and it turns out that it was indeed the high as the 2/3 high was a lower one.

I also did a daily chart showing the possible wave count from that post last week on 1/30/2026, which of course also projected a higher high for T5 inside S1, into the 4th of this month.  Then I showed TA starting down, and into a low that should happen next week.  But I projected it as a “higher low” then the low for TC expected to happen into early March.  Here’s that chart below…

Wave Count From 1/22/2026

So where are we now you ask?

Well, the move down for TA is “in play” right now, but we are already at the 1/21 prior low for T4, and have taken it out in the futures right now as I type this post up Thursday night.  So I think the TA and TC levels are going to flip, where the low (660.08 FP on the SPY?) will be hit next week, and it will complete TC as TA likely already ended at the low on 2/2, with the rally up into 2/3 being TB.  Here’s the current wave count below…

As you can see on that chart we should be in the last moves of a wave 3 down of some degree.  On the chart I suggest it’s the black wave 5 inside the blue/green wave 3, but that could be wrong?  We could also be in the blue/green wave 5, inside the red wave 3 down.  if the open Friday is another gap down I’ll have to think we are in that larger wave count and that the red wave 3 will end early in the trading session to allow a red wave 4 rally to start, which will probably last into next Monday/Tuesday.  Then the last drop for the red wave 5, inside black wave C plays out into next Thursday/Friday where we “ideally” reach the 660.08 FP on the SPY.

Keep your eyes on the VIX today as if we get a nasty spike up, like to the 28-30 zone where a triple top would happen, then there’s high odds for a bottom for the red wave 3 today, and a strong bounce for red wave 4 should last into as late as next Tuesday… but could end all in one day (today) if it retraces back up enough.

How much is unknown but if we saw a move back up to 6864 low for black A wave bottom on 2/2 I would re-short it as that’s too fast and won’t hold in my opinion.  Meaning that if we gap down at the open Friday I’ll likely exit my short.

Back to the VIX… you know that if we see a move up to the 28-30 area it will be rejected and will then put in very high odds that it reverses back down hard either Friday or Monday to put in a strong rally for the ES to make the red wave 4 up.  Then the red wave 5 down should be a 5 wave drop into late next week for the final low to complete the black wave C and the entire ABC correction… which should be a Small Wave 2 I think.

The Big Picture…

After that low (assuming it reaches the FP on the SPY) the rally up into OPEX week should be very strong, but it should NOT make a new all time high.  However, it could be so strong that it makes you think it’s going to breakout, but it should not happen.  It should only be the start of Small Wave 3 up, and of course it will have 5 Tiny Waves inside it.  My best guess is that it completes 5 Waves up into OPEX and then does an ABC down into the end of this month or early March for some kind of wave 2 pullback.  It’s going to setup a massive wave 3 combo up that will start early March and will go non-stop into April/May where 7600+ is possible.

Have a great weekend.