ES Morning Update March 26th 2026

The market looks weak, so another move down into the end of the month does look likely. It might be a higher low or lower low… I’m not sure? With those multi-FP’s put out on February 6th, 2026 there’s still a possibility that we make a lower low to hit them. I’m going to go over the wave count for both a higher low and a lower low. I do not know which one will play out but I would lean toward a higher low (a medium wave 2) if it wasn’t for those FP’s still not being hit and fulfilled. But with the history of FP’s I have to lean toward a lower low to hit them. Those FP’s are below again…

Ok, let’s look at the “higher low” wave count, which basically has a small C wave down, inside a medium wave 2, happening most likely into the end of the month, which is next Tuesday. Then we start small wave 1 up, inside medium wave 3 up. Here’s that chart…

Next will be the flush drop for the lower low to hit the multi-FP’s and complete large wave 4 down. It would make more sense from a wave count it would be an tiny wave 5 down inside small wave 5, inside medium wave C, inside large wave 4. Here’s that chart…

Notice how clean looking in would be to have 5 tiny waves down from the high of small wave 4 on March 10th. From that high there’s only 3 waves down to end that small wave 5 down. It looks like it’s missing one more move down, which the rally last Sunday, on March 23rd, would be the tiny wave 4 up, and then we would be in a tiny wave 5 down now, which would subdivide into 5 extra tiny waves most likely. The drop last Monday, March 24th, would have put in the low for extra tiny wave 1, then the rally up from it would be extra tiny wave 2, and we would still need to see extra tiny wave 3, 4 and 5 still to come… which would complete tiny wave 5, inside small wave 5, inside medium wave C, inside large wave 4, and that completes everything.

If this plays out I’d look for the low to be into the end of this month and for the FP’s to be hit and pierced. Which one? I don’t know? I’ll just be looking for the waves to finish up and for the “time” to run out, and “ideally” for the FP’s to get hit. I’ve taken 3 stabs at some longs and will take one more long if this plays out into next Tuesday. I don’t want to risk a short as I know we are on the tail end of the bearish period. We will start a major squeeze in April, so I want to get a great position for that long, which is why I keep buy longs with plenty of time to play out. We shall see.

Have a great weekend.