ES Morning Update April 17th 2026

We should be finishing up Small Wave 5, inside Medium Wave 1 today, or Monday at the latest. The rally has been quite strong and surprised a lot of traders I’m sure. Many shorted the double top only to see it keep on grinding higher, and now I’d say most of given up and turned bullish.

But there’s still another pullback coming next week for Medium Wave 2 down, which will likely be an ABC move with the C wave happening on Thursday or Friday. I say that because the cycle window of time for the low is between the 22nd-25th, which is later in the week. It could end in the beginning of that window I guess, hard to pinpoint the exact day. Cycles don’t always repeat that perfectly, but they get close. Now, how low will it go you ask? That’s a hard question that I con only guess at. I posted on X a few days ago of a chart of a new FP on the SPY of 670.53, which would be close to a 50% pullback from the March low, and right in line with typical wave 2′s (or 4″s).

But it doesn’t have to go that low, as the only thing that has high odds is that the cycle will produce a pullback of some degree with the ideal low being next Friday. It’s at that point where Small Wave 1 inside Medium Wave 3 up should start, and it should last until early May before a tiny pullback for Small Wave 2 happens.

That cycle window points to a low around May 8th, but again, the market will be in a strong Medium Wave 3 up, so Small Wave 2 might be a one day event, and possibly only a 100 points… who knows for sure? After that Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 3 will last until around the end of May, and I think we’ll see 7300+ in that move. Then Medium Wave 4 will chop everyone up for a few months before Medium Wave 5 up finishes in July, possibly August, where we should see 7600+ happen.

Hard too know what the level will be on any of the waves, so keep in mind they are estimates. Medium Wave 3 up could hit 7400, or more, I don’t for sure? But there’s big resistance up around the 7600 zone that area should be the final high zone. Could it reach 7777 for some ritual event? Of course, but when July and August comes, and the market is up around 7600+, I will not be calling for 8000 like everyone else. That will be when I’ll start looking for the Big Short.

Have a great weekend.