ES Morning Update April 23rd 2026
Nothing has changed as the market is topping out right now and still has a good pullback coming, which will likely happen over the weekend from the looks of it. The target is still the 670.53 FP on the SPY from 4/13, and of course it should pierce through it by some amount. I know that seems deep but in reality it’s a normal percentage of a pullback, which will be around 50% or so. I posted a chart on X this Monday showing what I think is coming, and below is that chart.
The last few days we’ve seen the market pullback tiny, go back up for a lower high, pullback tiny again, and other lower high. It may or may not make a slightly higher high, but it doesn’t matter as there’s not much left on the upside (if any?) compared to the downside. What will be the reason for the pullback you ask? I don’t know? But maybe Trump bombs Iran one last time over the weekend, or some other news spooks the market.
The real reason is in the “cycles”, which suggest there is a pullback coming into the end of the month. With the FOMC next week on the 29th it could be used for the reason to drop the market too… or it could be used for the bottom and we rally from it, which is my thinking. If they drop the market to the FP into the meeting then something will be viewed as positive from the meeting and we’ll start “The BIG Squeeze” up afterwards.
Possibly the Fed decides to do a surprise rate cut? Anything is possible, but “what” the news will be is unknown. I can only say that the cycles point to a low around then and a super strong rally to start after… which should be Medium Wave 3 up, and the first rally will be Small Wave 1, which should end in early May, where a brief (and likely small “in points” pullback) should happen for Small Wave 2 into around May 8th.
After that we’ll see Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 3 up, and that should be a non-stop, day after day, squeeze on the bears into a top around June 5th. What happens after that will feel like a crash, and probably look like one too. But we’ll cover that once we get there.
Have a great weekend.
Source: https://reddragonleo.com/2026/04/23/es-morning-update-april-23rd-2026/
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