Hope Beneath the Headlines
- US’ energy independence has helped mitigate negative economic effects of the oil price shock.
- Unit labor costs are growing at a slower rate, suggesting core inflation should moderate over time.
- S&P 500 earnings revisions continue to grow, suggesting the oil shock has not yet created a structural growth issue.
We are excited to release our April 2026 Chart Pack, our visual quarterly designed to walk investors through what is happening in markets and why, what may come next, and how we are positioning RiverFront portfolios. In today’s Weekly View, we picked three Chart Pack visuals to highlight.
The first quarter of 2026 will be remembered as the quarter geopolitics returned with force. The Iran conflict sent Brent crude oil prices well above $100/barrel. Markets responded with a measured but painful S&P 500 pullback, and the Fed, confronting near-term inflation uncertainty, kept rates unchanged at its March meeting.
And yet, beneath the geopolitical noise, the fundamental picture remains more constructive than the headlines suggest. Due to the US’ much greater energy independence relative to past decades (Chart 1, below), the US economy has been able to withstand the uncertainty caused by the war. Importantly, longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored. In addition, inflation risks are also mitigated by technology-driven productivity gains; unit labor costs around 2% suggest to us that core inflation trends should continue to moderate (Chart 2, below).
Critically, US corporate earnings estimates continue to be revised upwards (Chart 3, below), suggesting markets do not yet view the oil shock as a structural growth problem. We are watching events with humility, but we are not abandoning our constructive outlook — and we are already sizing up the opportunities that resolution will eventually present.
Source: https://etfdb.com/etf-strategist-channel/hope-beneath-headlines/
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