ES Morning Update May 21st 2026
The market is currently in Small Wave 4 down, and has been since it topped a little early on May 15th, and it appears to have bottomed for Tiny Wave A down and we are in Tiny Wave B up. Once it finishes we should see Tiny Wave C down to make a slightly lower low then Tiny Wave A, and the 7250′s is probably the target zone. Timewise I think we see that low by the end of next week. Don’t forget that the market is close Monday for Memorial Day, so it will be a short week and light volume I suspect. I posted a chart on X yesterday showing the wave counts, and that chart is below…
Now, for the short term bounce there was a “possible” FP on the SPY after the close yesterday showing 744.79 as a spike high. It happened at 4:40pm EST and is only a one minute candle, so it’s probably the target high for the Tiny Wave B rally that we are in right now. It might hit today, or wait until Friday, but after it hits I suspect that will end Tiny Wave B up. Below is that FP…
Then Tiny Wave C down should unfold in a 5 wave pattern next week. But again, we should have light volume and a shorten week, so don’t get all “beared up” looking for some big drop (not yet). It’s likely to be choppy and not easy to trade (even though it’s a C wave). Possibly the last day of the month is when the 3,4, and 5 wave happen and all we do is pierce the low of Tiny Wave A (but 7250-7300 seems likely).
Anyway, after that last low we should finish Small Wave 4 and setup the first week of June for Small Wave 5 up, which should at least reach the FP on the SPY of 759.35 (usually FP’s are pierced), which on the ES should be 7630-7640 I’d guess? The SPX would be 7610-7620 maybe? And that first week of June could be just a straight shot up as it squeezes out the bears that will short the bottom of Tiny Wave C down late next week. Then at that new all time high everyone will start calling for 8000 but the “time” will have run out for the bulls and the bears will get the ball, so a very nasty drop should follow after the blow off top.
Have a great weekend.
Source: https://reddragonleo.com/2026/05/21/es-morning-update-may-21st-2026/
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