Losing Patience: Markets Reprice Inflation Risk
US interest rates continue to break higher, moving beyond the tight range that held in place following the onset of the war. Economic data remain resilient, with growth readings holding firm despite the energy shock, while last week’s inflation prints showed incremental acceleration. With little progress on negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, markets are increasingly pricing in a more persistent inflation path. At the same time, newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh heads into his first FOMC meeting facing a more complicated backdrop, balancing firming inflation data against his previously more accommodative tone.
This dynamic marks a notable shift from earlier expectations. In an earlier note There and Back Again, we highlighted the sharp moves in global fixed income and the reversal that followed the Iran ceasefire announcement. One month later, progress on reopening the Strait remains limited. As a result, that reversal has largely unwound: rates have retraced higher and now sit at their highest levels since the war began. Meanwhile, credit spreads continue to reflect resilient economic and corporate fundamentals, remaining near the tightest levels seen this year.
Source: https://etfdb.com/etf-strategist-channel/losing-patience-markets-reprice-inflation-risk-1/
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