Investing Through Uncertainty Data and Discipline

From Poker to Public Markets

This Skull Session featured Deiya Pernas, an investor at Pernas Research, for a conversation on investing process, information arbitrage, AI, portfolio construction, and small-cap opportunities. The discussion opened with Deiya’s path into investing, shaped by poker, understanding, probabilities, emotional control, and decision-making under incomplete information.

Recall that I just spoke with Dean Pernas of Pernas Research during a Skull Session on May 19, 2026.

Well, while I was on a two-week trip to Mexico City en route to the Planet MicroCap Conference, Dean found out I was hanging out in Mexico and let me know that his brother, Deiya, actually lives there. So I ended up meeting him for breakfast one morning, and the next thing I knew, we were scheduling an in-person podcast at a quaint spot in an area of Mexico City called Condesa. 

Condesa is a really cool area of Mexico City with a bunch of cafés, restaurants, and street music. It reminded me of Las Olas, Florida, where I hang out when I’m in Fort Lauderdale. However, Las Olas is basically one strip of about 15 blocks filled with restaurants, shops, and cafés, while Condesa is a little more spread out, with a few different streets that have that same kind of vibe.

Deiya described poker as one of the best training grounds for investing because both require discipline under uncertainty. That led into a discussion of information arbitrage, where investors seek areas with weaker competition and more durable sources of edge. 

Hunting Grounds and False Narratives

We then moved into how Deiya looks across market caps. While many Pernas Research holdings fall into small caps and below, they do not exclude larger companies when volatility, fear, or false narratives create a window.

A major part of the conversation focused on areas where market fear can become too broad. Deiya used software as a service (SaaS) as an example, explaining that artificial intelligence (AI) concerns have pressured many software names without enough company-by-company analysis. The key distinction is whether a company is just a replaceable software tool or a fuller platform with customer relationships, critical mission responsibilities, distribution, proprietary data, application programming interface (API) access, and high switching costs.

Information Quality Still Drives the Edge

The conversation then shifted to AI tools, data access, and the temptation to believe that vibe coding alone creates an investment edge. We discussed how useful AI can be for research workflows, but the better edge still comes from trusted information sources, structured data, and the ability to analyze that data quickly.

That point connected directly to the InfoArb.io research platform and the value of real-time alerts, watchlists, filtering, and document analysis. Deiya agreed that good data providers are critical, especially when the goal is to build tools around information that is accurate, timely, and less likely to create false signals.

Motor Investing and Portfolio Flexibility

Deiya also expanded on the Pernas Research idea of “motor investing.” Instead of only looking for moats, they focus on whether the underlying motor of a company is getting stronger or weaker, including the competitive environment, customer demand, revenue quality, and the broader external setting.

That framework also shaped the conversation around diversification. We discussed how smaller positions can be useful when a company has risk, but also a compelling setup. Deiya pushed back on the idea that investors should only rely on a few lifetime holdings, arguing that flexibility is important in markets where competitive landscapes can change quickly.

Illiquidity, Restructurings, and Where Opportunity Can Hide

We spent time on nano caps, illiquidity, and why some of the best opportunities can appear before a story is fully rediscovered. The discussion touched on situations where financing events, insider participation, debt refinancing, or customer relationship changes can reduce risk before the broader market reacts.

Deiya agreed that illiquidity is not automatically a reason to avoid a stock. It can be part of the opportunity if the company’s fundamentals improve and liquidity develops later. The broader point was that investors still need the right screening process, because microcap land contains both real businesses and companies that fit the negative penny stock stereotype.

Research Ownership and Current Areas of Interest

Near the end, Deiya explained how he and Dean, his brother and investing partner, divide research responsibilities at Pernas Research. They are philosophically aligned, but they each own specific ideas, which helps avoid confusion over who is responsible for a position.

Deiya also discussed areas they are watching, including cybersecurity, defense, drones, and aerospace. In cybersecurity, he described how AI may increase the number of vulnerabilities companies can identify, making context, consequence, and risk prioritization more important. The conversation closed with how Pernas Research structures portfolio sleeves and prepares to launch a fund while maintaining a shared investment philosophy.

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