Everybody Hates This Commodity

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A Reuters headline published back in December 2025 touted: Five Energy Market Trends to Track in 2026, the Year of the Glut.

Analysts expected oil to be oversupplied. That aged well for about two and a half months…

However, natural gas remains hated here in the U.S. The “Year of the Glut” moniker stuck with traders. And they are heavily short. In fact, natural gas looks cheap, hated, and prepared for a serious uptrend.

And I don’t say that lightly. We call natural gas the “widow maker” for a reason. Trading natural gas is like trying to get your eight seconds on a gold star Brahma bull. But sometimes you get a good draw. And that’s what we see right now.

Here in the U.S., big money hates natural gas. The shadow of last year’s glut forecast remains fixed in traders’ minds. But the market turned sharply in the last few months.

War in Iran and Ukraine devastated the global natural gas supply. LNG markets are ripping higher. And in the U.S., data centers are gobbling up real estate in west Texas to take advantage of the proximity to cheap natural gas for electricity.

The only folks that don’t seem to get it are U.S. investors. And that’s the opportunity. Let me show you what I mean. Below is a 30-year chart of spot natural gas prices in the U.S. The current price is under $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The blue line is the 5-year moving average price.

As we can see, the current price is below the 5-year moving average. In other words, the current price does still show a glut of natural gas. And we expected that. Here’s what the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published in January 2026:

Remember, this was before the war in Iran shut down exports from the Middle East. So far, that chart is right on. But I expect to see that rise in price to move higher, faster due to the limited liquified natural gas (LNG) exports.

That brings us to our first opportunity. You see LNG prices in Europe and Asia are as high as $18 and $19 per MMBtu, respectively. That gives U.S. LNG exporters a huge margin. And the industry thinks that it will continue.

There are currently six major LNG plants either expanding or under construction. The EIA forecasts LNG exports from North America to more than double by 2029. Most of that comes from the U.S.

This is important because natural gas is difficult to ship without pipelines. Compared to oil, natural gas is immobile without these special LNG facilities. The recent wars in Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz, clearly demonstrate the unreliability of those supplies.

So, in the short term, companies like Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG) are going to make a ton of money on this trade. Cheap U.S. gas, shipped to Europe and Asia is a great trade right now.

However, natural gas prices can’t stay this cheap for long. And that’s why we want to own the lowest cost natural gas producers in the U.S. Companies like Range Resources (NYSE: RRC), Antero Corporation (NYSE: AR), and EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) are low cost and major natural gas producers.

And like natural gas prices, the stocks are down:

EQT is now as cheap as it was in 2025. And that’s our second opportunity. It’s not ripe yet…but soon. We just want to see this chart tick up a little bit. As soon as that uptrend starts, it’s game on.

So, in summary, buy LNG producers today and watch natural gas producers for the next few weeks. When they move higher, jump into that trade. Be prepared for some volatility. But if you hold for a year, you will be rewarded.

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