What’s Driving Rates Up and Bonds Down?
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
— Mark Twain
As we round the three-quarter pole and head into the final stretch of 2026, the prevailing investment narrative has, of course, been AI, along with its pros and cons. Since March, when the Iran conflict began, there has been a secondary drumbeat that continues to get louder and louder: the narrative surrounding bond prices, interest rates, inflation, and the economy. Over the past few months, bond prices have fallen as yields have climbed, with many laying the blame squarely on the shoulders of the Iran conflict and increasing energy prices. That’s only partially correct. While many are attributing the rise in yields to increased inflation expectations, empirically, that’s only part of the story. In reality, inflation is a secondary, or even tertiary, influence. Other theories range from an expanding term premium tied to the U.S. fiscal path and increasing debt levels, to rising yields in Japan contributing to de-dollarization. Those factors have played a role, but only a minor one. The answer is much simpler, and quite frankly, more anti-climactic than what many would have you think. We’ll explore each of these factors and more in this quarter’s Market Insights: What’s Driving Rates Up and Bonds Down?
Source: https://etfdb.com/etf-strategist-channel/what-s-driving-rates-up-and-bonds-down/
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