Gold Holding On

Source: Barry Dawes 08/06/2024

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities shares his take on the current state of the market, looking at Japanese Yen, gold, bonds, currencies, and Bitcoin.

Another wild trading day will have large volatility in so many markets.

Maybe there is a recession coming, but it doesn’t seem that way. Maybe there is WWIII, please Israel and Iran, along with Lebanon, possibly engaging.

The Yen carry has dominated commentary, but it has been after the event. The Yen broke a 50-year uptrend a few years ago and seems to be heading much lower still.

All the attributes of a depreciating currency are there :- debt, rising interest rates, budget deficits, etc.

The rally in the Yen has probably peaked, certainly, for now.

The Nikkei may still be in this parabola.

And the absurdity of 10-year bonds falling to 0.75%.

Just a back test, before going much higher.

Gold

Wave count intact.

The parabola looks strong.

Gold Stocks

Island reversal here?

Pretty obvious here.

Intraday looks like an island reversal and a hammer.

Bonds

Sharp fall in yields. Targets reached.

Ready to bounce higher.

Bond prices need a breather too.

Currencies

There is some evidence for the US$DXY to weaken further into a cycle low over the next month.

But still in a bull market.

The Yen and Swiss Franc seem to have finished their run-ups, but there is time for the Euro with 57% of the DXY, to amble higher to about 112, then head down again.

This just doesn’t look like a bull market here but it is now likely to head up to 112.

Stocks

S&P 500:

Normal sharp pullback.

Market sentiment is not right for this long-term bull to end in just a whimper.

And the bears came out in extraordinary force over the weekend.

Small caps still look robust.

Bitcoin

Horrendous market action. A short-term rally is coming.

Then lower it would appear.

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