The Impact of Presidential Transitions on Gold: 100 Years of Reflection

Over the last century, the gold market has, on many occasions, reacted to changes in fiscal policy, economic uncertainty, and shifts in international relations – all of which come with new administrations.

From FDR’s abandonment of the gold standard in 1933 to the recent arguments over monetary policy and methods of inflation control, each transition has had its distinct set of pressures and opportunities for those investing in gold. This article reflects on presidential transitions and changes in the gold industry while tracking key moments of volatility, shifts in regulation, and policy changes that have helped define gold as both a safe-haven asset and an economic indicator.

Calvin Coolidge (1923-1929)

Coolidge took over from Warren Harding in 1923, instituting economic stability after the recession created by World War I. In his leadership, he focused on increasing the country’s strength with the gold standard and increasing global confidence in the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Harding and Coolidge favored the gold standard; however, their fiscally conservative policies became very popular. By reducing the national debt and keeping its hands off the economy, the administration helped the dollar maintain confidence because it was based on gold. This made it an exceptionally desirable currency in international trade and finance. Coolidge’s policies produced low inflation, wherein the dollar had a substantial value in relation to gold. By avoiding excessive extravagance, Coolidge prevented inflationary tendencies and thus did not affect the value of the U.S. dollar in terms of gold and the soundness of the gold dollar.

Herbert Hoover (1929-1933)

The transition from Calvin Coolidge to Herbert Hoover in 1929 tested the gold standard. That Hoover took the reins when the economy had seen such extensive growth but was about to drive off a cliff explains much about his bad luck. In October, as did any remaining investor confidence, the stock market crashed, severely damaging the banking system. This crisis motivated the mass withdrawals of gold from banks as people tried to secure their wealth in physical assets, thus the gold outflows. Unable to abandon the gold standard, Hoover failed to inject any more liquidity into the economy, therefore deflating it. The gold-backed dollar constrained the U.S.; thus, it could only print additional money by risking being depleted of its gold reserves. The administration raised interest rates to defend the gold reserves, further contracting the money supply and exacerbating deflation and economic decline. The financial hardships induced new legislation, such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which further impaired international trade relationships and strained the ability of foreign nations to repay debt with dollars backed by gold. These indirect policies hastened the trend away from gold as an international standard.

Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945)

Herbert Hoover to Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of the most pivotal transitions for the gold industry and perhaps had the most impact of any transition in the last hundred years. One of Roosevelt’s first acts as president was to suspend the gold standard in the United States through an executive order that prohibited the private ownership of gold in March of 1933. Roosevelt’s action of taking the U.S. off the gold standard allowed him to extend the money supply, reverse the deflationary spiral, and undertake economic growth impulses free from a constricted gold reserve base. He signed Executive Order 6102, calling for all Americans to deliver their gold coins, bullion, and certificates to the government in exchange for paper currency. The government fixed the price of gold at $20.67 per ounce and later increased it to $35 per ounce in 1934 with the Gold Reserve Act. In devaluing the dollar, U.S. goods were cheaper internationally, stimulating exportation and increasing the Treasury’s supplies of the yellow metal as the asset flowed into the United States. They could no longer trade their paper dollars for gold, and gold-backed currency was dead in the United States. This policy change marked the beginning of fiat currency in the United States. The dollar’s value was now backed by faith in the government, not by stores of gold. This excess money supply also allowed the government to finance New Deal projects, which were vital in rebuilding public infrastructure and revitalizing jobs. Roosevelt’s abandonment of the gold standard directly impacted other countries experiencing the same economic stressors; many abandoned their gold standards during the 1930s. However, the U.S. maintained the support of gold with regard to international settlements, which provided the foundation for the Bretton Woods system in 1944. This system pegged the international currencies to the dollar, which was still partly gold-supported, hence turning the dollar into the world’s primary reserve currency.

Harry S. Truman (1945-1953)

The transition from Franklin D. Roosevelt to Harry S. Truman in 1945 came when the U.S., after World War II, emerged as an economic powerhouse, and its monetary system, and significantly, the role of gold, had transformed. Whereas Roosevelt had taken the U.S. off the gold standard and transformed the domestic economy, during Truman’s presidency, the global role of gold was being redefined to make the dollar the anchor of the international monetary system. During the summer of 1944, even before Truman came into office, the Bretton Woods Conference fashioned a new world economic order whereby the U.S. dollar was supposed to become the world’s reserve currency. This system pegged other countries’ currencies to the dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. Truman’s administration supported and implemented the system that made the dollar “as good as gold” and the U.S. the world’s central bank. Such a decision improved global demand for dollars since other countries had to hold U.S. currency to stabilize their currencies. The dollar served as the de facto international currency, effectively leaving the United States as the holder of the preponderance of the world’s gold. The supply of U.S. gold mightily influenced both economic and geopolitical matters. During Truman’s presidency, the U.S. utilized its stores of gold to anchor this new monetary order by instilling a sense of dollar stability in people. The Truman administration created fundamental pressure for future U.S. gold reserves by making the U.S. dollar the reserve currency convertible with gold. The more international economic transactions occurred, the more dollars foreign governments needed and wanted to hold, and the more they cashed dollars in for gold.

Dwight D. Eisenhower (1953-1961)

The latter would follow Harry S. Truman in 1953, and the transition of powers was smoothly done during a phenomenal economic growth and stability period, with the full seat of the Bretton Woods system in place. Eisenhower continued the gold-backed dollar system, maintaining the dollar pegged to gold at $35 an ounce for the international central banks. With the expansion of the global economy, demand for dollar supply significantly increased since other countries needed dollars both for trade and as a reserve currency. The U.S. needed to supply these dollars, but each dollar in circulation represented a claim on the U.S. gold reserve at $35 per ounce. Under Eisenhower, the first fissures in U.S. gold reserves appeared as more foreign governments gathered dollars that could theoretically be exchanged for gold. This wasn’t a crisis but an indication of the future problems of maintaining the gold standard with increasing dollar demand. Eisenhower was conservative with his fiscal policies, such as trying to keep budgets balanced and resisting pressures that called for increased government overspending. Instead, he preferred budgetary discipline under the gold standard to maintain dollar credibility. His administration did not want inflation, which would have degraded the dollar, and questioned its backing with gold. The Cold War necessitated a very high level of defense spending, but he was trying to keep this level as low as possible to avoid high debt and inflation. This cautious approach to spending was partly to maintain the dollar’s strength and ensure it would remain tied to gold. Still, despite Eisenhower’s fiscal discipline, defense and foreign aid spending contributed to the demand for dollars overseas, ultimately contributing to future pressures on the U.S. gold reserves.

John F. Kennedy (1961-1963)

It was during the transition from Dwight Eisenhower to John F. Kennedy that the first signs of weakness in the Bretton Woods system started to appear. When Kennedy took office, the United States felt a growing drain on its gold reserves. Foreign central banks held massive amounts of U.S. dollars, which could be redeemed for gold at the fixed rate of $35 an ounce. This “gold drain” was a significant concern for Kennedy because any large-scale conversion of dollars into gold by foreign governments could rapidly deplete U.S. gold reserves. To help maintain the $35-per-ounce gold peg, Kennedy’s administration established the “Gold Pool” in 1961 in coordination with several European central banks. This pool was a cooperative effort to stabilize the gold price on the London market by coordinating sales and purchases to prevent its price from rising above the level of $35 per ounce. The Gold Pool intended to reassure the rest of the world of the U.S. commitment to dollar-gold convertibility, which is a necessary prop to the Bretton Woods system for maintaining stability in the international monetary system. The balance of payments deficit was a key factor affecting the level of U.S. gold reserves. The drains created by military expenditures abroad, foreign aid, and imports produced a persistent U.S. deficit that added to the supply of dollars available abroad, increasing the potential demand for the redemption of dollars for gold. Kennedy’s administration enacted a series of measures designed to improve this deficit, one of which was Operation Twist. This monetary policy intended to make interest rates low at home while making U.S. investments attractive to foreign investors.

Lyndon B. Johnson (1963-1969)

With the transition from John F. Kennedy to Lyndon B. Johnson in 1963, existing pressures on the gold-backed dollar were further heightened by Johnson’s ambitious domestic spending programs and costly military commitments. Most importantly, in Johnson’s case, his policies of expanded social programs and the escalation of the Vietnam War increased stress on the U.S. budget and gold reserves, further narrowing the leeway under the Bretton Woods system. The Johnson Administration’s “Great Society” program aimed at poverty, education, and health care. This “guns and butter” program put a greater strain on the U.S. budget, increasing deficits and adding more dollars to the world economy. As the dollars floated worldwide, other nations held more reserves they could conceivably convert into U.S. gold, putting pressure on the gold standard. By the late 1960s, the speculative demand for gold was taking off as investors and foreign governments doubted the sustainability of the gold-dollar peg. In 1968, the Gold Pool finally collapsed, which gave a signal about losing control over a fixed price of gold and increasing the chance of the break of the whole Bretton Woods system. To solve the growing crisis in 1968, Johnson’s administration and other central banks created a two-tier gold market. The $35 per ounce would serve in official government transactions, while private dealings in gold were allowed to float. This makeshift arrangement aimed to remove the pressure on U.S. gold reserves that had arisen from discouraging foreign central banks from converting their dollars into gold. This may have postponed an immediate collapse, but it also significantly departed from the traditional gold standard and provided evidence of its weakness. These challenges contributed directly to breaking the gold standard just a few years after Johnson left office.

Richard Nixon (1969-1974)

The transition from Lyndon B. Johnson to Richard Nixon in 1969 came at a critical moment in the history of the U.S. dollar and the Bretton Woods system. Through his policies, primarily through the expansion of social programs and through the Vietnam War, Johnson had already stretched the gold-backed dollar to a breaking point. As a result, there was growing skepticism over the ability to maintain dollar convertibility into gold. The Nixon administration did nothing but take that final and irrevocable step toward the end of the gold standard, faced as it was with several grim realities brought on by economic woes. The growing financial instability and the depletion of the gold reserves made Nixon, on August 15, 1971, adopt several emergency measures that later came to be referred to as the “Nixon Shock.” The most crucial measure was suspending the dollar’s convertibility into gold. This meant that Nixon let the world know that the United States would no longer exchange dollars for gold at the fixed rate of $35 an ounce. What had been heralded as a temporary solution completely severed the link between the U.S. dollar and gold, thus ending the Bretton Woods system. Because of the suspension of gold convertibility, confidence in the dollar started to be undermined; countries and investors began looking for alternatives to the dollar, at least in the short run. As a result, free-market gold prices began to rise, and a new era of floating exchange rates started to materialize in which currencies were no longer pegged to gold but traded on foreign exchange markets based on supply and demand. By 1973, the final remnants of the Bretton Woods system disappeared when currencies began to float freely on one another. This marked the beginning of the first fiat currency in the modern era, as gold was no longer at the center anchor for the different global currencies.

Gerald Ford (1974-1977)

Gerald Ford took over the presidency from Richard Nixon in 1974, just after what is considered the Nixon Shock, where both the Bretton Woods system and, more importantly, the direct link between the U.S. dollar and gold effectively ended. This transition tended to impact gold primarily in the form of the continuity of Nixon’s policies as far as the dollar and gold were concerned and the attempts of Ford at stabilizing the economy in the wake of monetary system shocks. At the outset of the presidency of Gerald Ford in August of 1974, the U.S. was facing high inflation, worsened by the combination of the dollar’s devaluation and the oil crises of the early 1970s. This inflationary environment put added pressure on gold, with investors and foreign governments looking to gold as a hedge against a weakening dollar. During Ford’s tenure, gold prices continued to rise, reflecting inflationary pressures and an increasing demand for gold as a safe haven. By the time he left office, gold had breached $180 per ounce in 1976, representing a rise of over 500% from the fixed price of $35 just a few years earlier. One of the most critical domestic policy responses was the WIN (Whip Inflation Now)  program, which called for voluntary measures to be available to reduce inflation, including price and wage controls. These did not relate directly to gold, but as part of the general economic instability, they contributed to the rising demand for gold as a store of value. One significant move by Ford’s administration was the relegalization of private gold ownership in 1974; such ownership had been made illegal during the Great Depression under Franklin D. Roosevelt back in 1933. On December 31, 1974, President Ford signed a bill repealing the 41-year-old ban on individual gold bullion ownership and permitted Americans to once again freely buy and hold gold as a private investment. This move responded to growing interest in gold as a hedge against inflation and a store of value. It was also a symbolic gesture to recognize the increasing erosion of faith in fiat currencies as more Americans sought ways to diversify their wealth by accumulating gold.

Jimmy Carter (1977-1981)

Continuing economic instability in the U.S., the inflationary trend, the oil crisis, and the weaker dollar gave us the 1977 transition from Gerald Ford to Jimmy Carter. Gold prices appreciated during this period as investors and governments took to this valuable metal for succor amidst these pressures. By the time Carter took office, gold traded at about $200 an ounce, driven higher by the continuing depreciation of the U.S. dollar and unrelenting inflation that had been exacerbated through the 1970s. Inflation reached 13.3% in 1979. The increasing energy cost and continued supply chain disruptions further pushed the economy into stagnation, or “stagflation.” As the stagflation crisis rose along with continued high inflation, a tumbling of confidence in the stability of the U.S. economy and the dollar value was created, feeding into the function of gold as a safe haven. The bottom line is that the economic uncertainty created by these factors and the geopolitical turmoil during the late 1970s contributed significantly to strengthening the function of gold as a stable store of value. By the end of his presidency in 1981, gold had spiraled to over $800 an ounce, having been in the range of $200 an ounce when he came into office.

Ronald Reagan (1981-1989)

When Ronald Reagan succeeded Jimmy Carter in 1981, the effect on gold drastically changed, especially with the economic policies adopted during Reagan’s presidency. Ronald Reagan came into office in January 1981 and launched an ambitious program of economic policies centered on supply-side economics: heavy tax cuts, deregulation, and focusing on taming inflation while boosting economic growth. Reagan’s team made serious attempts at cutting down government spending and lowering taxation to increase business investment and job creation while reducing inflation. One of the most essential things Reagan did in the early days of his presidency was continuing the monetary policy installed by Paul Volcker. Carter’s appointee aggressively increased interest rates late in the 1970s and early 1980s to combat inflation. A tight monetary policy led to high interest rates, which helped bring inflation down over the next few years. Though producing a recession in the early 1980s, these policies reduced inflation from double-digit figures to more manageable levels by the middle of the decade. As Reagan’s policies kicked in and the upward spiral in inflation began to subside, the demand for gold as an inflation hedge started to siphon off. By mid-1981, the price of gold, which had been soaring through the late 1970s and early 1980s, began to decline. As Reagan’s policies took hold and inflation moderated, the need for gold as an inflation hedge lessened. High interest rates invoked by the Federal Reserve made other investments, such as bonds, more attractive against gold, not providing any yield as interest-bearing assets do. By 1981, gold had fallen from its peak of over $800 per ounce to around $500 per ounce by the time Reagan took office. This downward trend in the price of gold continued into much of the early 1980s; as the U.S. economy began to recover, inflation lessened, and the dollar strengthened. Although the price of gold during the first few years of Reagan’s presidency had fallen, it is essential to note that over the long term, gold still was valued as a store of wealth. Even in this period of falling prices, gold remained one of the most crucial options for diversification of portfolios and central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. Considering its fall in the early 1980s, gold realized its attractiveness during geopolitical turbulence and economic uncertainty in the late 1980s and 1990s.

George H.W. Bush (1989-1993)

Given that this transition happened during relative stability in the world economy and was also past most of the significant economic changes experienced during the 1980s, the effect on gold prices was relatively muted during this transition period from Ronald Reagan to George H.W. Bush in 1989. By the time Bush entered office, gold prices had already retreated to the $350-$400 per ounce range from their peak levels during the early 1980s. Stable growth in the late 1980s combined low inflation and a strong dollar. These were indications of lesser demand for gold as a hedge against inflation or protection from general economic uncertainty. During Bush’s presidency, however, various events worldwide, including the 1990-1991 Gulf War, provided short-term impetus to gold prices because of uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East. The early 1991 price of gold increased temporarily when investors sought safe-haven assets because of the fear of escalation of regional tension. In the longer term, though, the dissipation of significant geopolitical and inflationary risks ensured that gold remained peripheral primarily to the other investments, such as the exceptionally performing equities at that time.

Bill Clinton (1993-2001)

The handover from George H.W. Bush in 1993 to Bill Clinton saw marked effects on the price of gold, influenced by the U.S. economic policy, global geopolitical events, and investor psychology. The Clinton administration passed a deficit-reduction package in 1993 aimed at shaving the U.S. budget deficit with increased taxes for the wealthy and reined-in spending. These policies and a surging economy helped ease inflation fears and fiscal instability. The economic boom during Clinton’s presidency and a lack of significant inflationary pressures reduced the demand for gold as an inflation hedge. With low, consistent inflation and economic growth, some traditional roles of gold as a store of value or hedge against inflation dissipated, leading to a decline in gold prices. Gold had been in a long-term bear market since the 1980s, and under Clinton, it got further pushed down by the economic stability. The ’90s also saw a robust stock market boom, especially in technology firms and, in particular, the growth of Internet stocks. During Clinton’s presidency, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rose sharply, drawing investors into equities and away from safe-haven assets like gold. Indeed, with the excellent performance of the stock market, the opportunity cost of holding gold is not earning interest or dividends as stocks and bonds do increase, driving many investors away from gold and into equities. As investor sentiment shifted, this contributed to subdued gold prices during Clinton’s presidency. The price of gold continued to slide throughout the mid-1990s to below $300 per ounce by the time Clinton left office in 2001.

George W. Bush (2001-2009)

Gold significantly changed with the transition from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush in 2001. This was the beginning of an era of global economic terms globally. This was due to the collapse of the stock market, where the NASDAQ erased almost 80% of its value from its peak in 2000 to a low. The slowdown in the economy of the United States was very significant. The economic downturn witnessed by the bursting of the dot-com bubble initially did not have much effect on gold prices. The terrorist attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, cast a pall of uncertainty over world markets, increasing demand for safe-haven assets. Immediately after the attacks, gold prices shot upward because investors looked for safety in hard assets amid growing geopolitical uncertainty and fear of more attacks. It wasn’t until after 9/11 that gold prices surpassed $300 per ounce for the first time in many years. Then, there was the invasion of Iraq in 2003, adding layer upon layer of geopolitical risk and uncertainty to the global backdrop. The price of gold blipped up again in the pre-Iraq War build-up to around $400 an ounce in 2003. The war brought more concern about world instability and disruption in oil supplies, pushing investors to invest in the safety of gold.

Meanwhile, in the early 2000s, the dollar underwent a significant devaluation against the U.S. The dollar had fallen against other major currencies based on several events: the U.S. trade deficit, U.S. fiscal policy concerns, and the War in Iraq. As the dollar weakened, gold generally appreciated. Between 2001 and 2005, the price of gold started recovering partly due to the broader trend of the weakening dollar and increased demand for gold as an alternative store of value. By 2005, gold had reached its decade-long high of $450-$500 per ounce. The performance of gold at this time set the stage for this yellow metal to reach record highs in the following years.

Barack Obama (2009-2017)

The year 2009 saw the transition from George W. Bush to Barack Obama, and the price of gold was considerably affected by this change of guard again due to the prevalent economic and financial conditions. When he first took office in January 2009, the economy was already in a steep decline, initiated by the breakdown of leading financial institutions like Lehman Brothers in September 2008. A global recession followed, with a disturbing rise in unemployment, a freeze on credit, and a decline in stock market values. As investors sought havens of safety during these tumultuous financial times, gold became more attractive. The Great Recession’s economic challenges and fears of further market instability pushed up demand for gold as a store of value and a hedge against systemic risks in the banking system. In reaction to the financial crisis, under the guidance of Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve pursued a sequence of quantitative easing programs starting at the end of 2008 and well into the Obama administration. These were a suite of programs in which the Fed bought massive amounts of government and mortgage-back securities to inject liquidity into the financial system and drive down long-term interest rates. So, given the expectation of much higher inflation from the Fed’s actions, gold sharply moved upward in 2009. Surging from around $850 per ounce in late 2008, for the first time in history, gold pierced through the $1,000 per ounce barrier in 2009. The rise of gold ETFs has made it much easier for individual and institutional investors to buy gold without holding the metal physically. This new investment vehicle was a driver of gold demand and a spur to higher prices. Gold was increasingly viewed as an essential tool for portfolio diversification in light of volatility and risks in stock and bond markets. It became a favored asset as people tried to safeguard their portfolios during uncharted times. Each of these factors- financial crisis, Fed policy, rising inflation expectations, a weak dollar, and strong investor demand- pushed gold into a long-term bull market that began around 2001 and intensified during the financial crisis. By the end of 2009, gold was trading at $1,200 per ounce and continued to climb well into the Obama administration, reaching $1,800 per ounce in 2011. By the time Obama left office in January 2017, gold prices reached highs not seen in decades.

Donald J. Trump (2017-2021)

Dramatic changes in 2017 in U.S. economic and political conditions, with the transition from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, took place, thus affecting gold prices. The Trump administration’s first and most significant move was the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which reduced corporate tax rates and increased the tempo of economic growth. Substantial increases in government spending on defense and infrastructure then followed. It was thought that the pro-growth fiscal policies and tax cuts backed economic expansion, which could bring down demand for gold. There was a period of euphoria around the new administration’s policies in which many investors were optimistic that the tax cuts and deregulation effort would improve the growth with high stock market returns. This was the reason for the short-term decrease in gold prices in 2017, as investors shifted to riskier assets like equities. Because of optimism over Trump’s economic program, gold prices fell below $1,200 per ounce in early 2017. However, this initial optimism started to create worries over rising inflation, mainly due to a mix of tax cuts, growing government spending, and a more significant federal deficit. The fiscal policies of the Trump administration, including tax cuts and budget increases, were bound to raise the national debt, and speculation was growing regarding future inflationary pressures. This is where the fear of inflation gradually started creeping in, making gold an increasingly effective hedge. In 2018, there was an uptick in inflation concerns and potentially a weaker dollar related to rising debt, helping to boost the price of gold to over $1,300 an ounce. As Trump entered 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic brought a global health and economic crisis. By nature, the pandemic brought about widespread shutdowns of financial activities, mass unemployment, and previously unmatched government spending. In response, the Federal Reserve drastically cut its interest rate to almost zero and initiated massive quantitative easing programs. At the same time, the U.S. passed stimulus packages to help keep the economy running. The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with monetary easing by the Fed and the substantial fiscal stimulus, placed upward pressure on the price of gold. Gold reached all-time highs and breached the $2,000-per-ounce level in August 2020.

Joe Biden (2021-2025)

The transition in January 2021 from Donald Trump to Joe Biden had enormous effects on the price of gold, set by variables such as the COVID-19 pandemic, economic stimulus measures, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks. When Joe Biden took over the mantle of affairs in January 2021, the U.S. was still battling with the devastating COVID-19 pandemic that had caused severe disruption to its economy. Heavy unemployment, business closures, and overwhelming uncertainty among economic agents characterized the pandemic. Biden wasted little time signing the broad $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, the American Rescue Plan, aimed at financial relief for individuals, businesses, and healthcare systems. The package would include direct payments to Americans, extended unemployment benefits, and funds for vaccine distribution. The stimulus measures put forth, in addition to low interest rates and continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, made gold attractive as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. Inflation heated up when the U.S. economy started recovering in 2021, partly fueled by supply chain bottlenecks, increasing demand, and the generous fiscal stimulus under Biden’s administration. With that trend, U.S. consumer prices leaped in 2021 and raised concerns of continued inflation. Still, the prospect of increased interest rates by the Federal Reserve weighed negatively on gold prices during the close of the year. In the days leading up to a series of rate hikes and an even stronger dollar, the price of gold was put under pressure going into 2022. By the end of 2021, gold prices had settled at around $1,800 per ounce, reflecting continued inflation fears and Fed tightening.

Donald J. Trump (President-Elect 2025-2029)

Various factors, including economic policies, fiscal strategies, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy, would influence the possible impacts on gold prices for a second Trump administration.

These range from inflation expectations and interest rates to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, which influence the exposure of gold. The previous Trump administration had been characterized by pro-growth fiscal policies: tax cuts like the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, deregulation, and a focus on stimulating economic growth through corporate tax reductions and increased government spending. A second Trump administration could carry those policies further, lowering taxes and raising government spending. Further tax cuts or deficit spending by Trump could raise more significant concerns about national debt and inflation. That is usually a good scenario for gold, as investors would turn to the metal for protection against the devaluation of their currency and inflation. If government spending stays high, it might support higher gold prices. On the other hand, if those policies make for strong economic growth and a stronger U.S. dollar, that would put downward pressure on gold, as demand for safe-haven assets would be reduced.

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