Decoupling From Gold

Source: Stewart Thomson 05/14/2025

Newsletter writer Stewart Thomson addresses the questions: Are junior miners decoupling from gold and the stock market, and are they set to soar?

I’ve noted the arrival of the dollar at par (100) on the USDX index. Here’s a look at the chart:

This arrival at par has been accompanied by a pause/dip for gold, silver, and the miners. I suggested that gold would be in the $3200-$3500 range when the dollar hit par, and that projection has played out perfectly.

Now I’m suggesting that 103 for the dollar could correlate with $2950 for gold.

The “Sell America and buy gold” theme is still in play, but in the short term, it’s been overshadowed by the U.S./China tariff tax cuts.

Because the fear trade dominates gold price discovery in London and New York, gold is sold rather than bought, as a bizarre fear trade-oriented celebration of good news like the tariff chops.

Here’s a look at the current gold price action:

Gold bullion (and silver for silver bugs) can be bought at a gold price of $3150 and $3050, but for the type of miners that are in the GDXJ & SGDJ ETFs (junior intermediates, mostly), more patience is required.

For most investors, the $2950 zone seems ideal for buying those miners . . . with expectation of a fast 20%-30% price pop soon after making the buys.

Here’s a look at the GDXJ chart:

The Stochastics buy signal has failed, and support at $58.60-$57.65 is being severely tested. Gamblers can buy here with a tight stop (as I suggested in my swing trade newsletter), but for more conservative players, the $2950 zone seems more reliable.

The CDNX index recently broke out from a big broadening formation and moved above the key 680 marker. It’s pulling back now (as is normal after a breakout).

Here’s the chart:

There are an enormous number of CDNX component stocks breaking up from the type of “bottom feeder” pattern you see on this chart.

Here’s a look at one of them — Rua Gold Inc. (RUA:TSXV; NZAUF:OTC; A40QYC:WKN):

I’ve urged investors to keep an eye on RUA (and many others).

I don’t think it matters whether gold dips to $2950 or not; a lot of these raw junior miners are set to stage vertical price surges regardless of what gold or the US stock market does.

Harfang Exploration Inc. (HAR:TSX.V) is another one that is breaking out to the upside.

Note this news out today:

The adage “Sell when the drill results are announced” applies less when there’s a solid base pattern breakout in play . . . as there is now for Harfang.

Here’s the chart:

A lot of the CDNX stocks in Harfang-style breakout mode also trade on the US OTC market. It’s clearly an exciting time for junior mine stock investors, regardless of what happens next for gold and the stock market!

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Important Disclosures:

1. Stewart Thomson: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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Stewart Thomson Disclosures

Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:

Are You Prepared?

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