New Agreement Secures Gold and Silver Output Through 2037

According to a January 26 report from Adrian Day, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. reported preliminary results that were “again slightly below expectations.” He wrote that the company was “at the high end of its guidance for the full year, with its ninth consecutive year of record GEOs (and of course record revenue).”

Day also noted that Triple Flag’s major shareholder, Elliott Management, was selling 2.77 million shares in an arranged sale and stated that Elliott “does not have any specific plan or intention to … dispose of” additional shares. Day concluded his commentary with the rating “Hold.” The report did not disclose formal target prices.

In a February 11 report from BMO Capital Markets, Rene Cartier wrote that Triple Flag and Evolution announced “a gold and silver stream agreement for the new gold-dominant E44 deposit.” Cartier stated that the structure “contains guaranteed minimum deliveries of gold and silver over the 2030 to 2037 period” and added that “overall, we see the transaction as relatively NAV neutral with a base-case mid-single digit IRR on BMO metal price assumptions, though improved at spot.”

The report also stated that “additional resources exist providing the potential for further upside” and that “a mill expansion study to increase processing capacity is also positive in the medium to longer term.” Cartier wrote that Triple Flag was set to contribute “84.3M in Q4/26 for the development of the deposit” and that Evolution committed to “guaranteed minimum deliveries of 45,052oz of gold and 446,200oz of silver over the 2030 to 2037 period from E44.”

Cartier noted that “triple flag is entitled to purchase 20% of payable gold and 30% of payable silver with ongoing payments of 10% of spot” and stated that “with the new stream, there are no associated step-downs.” Cartier wrote that in the event a positive construction decision was not made by December 31, 2029, Evolution could elect to terminate its cumulative minimum delivery obligations for “a cash payment of 102.5M.” He added that based on the minimum delivery requirements, “we estimate an IRR of 6.6% at BMO metal price assumptions, or 15.4% at spot.”

Cartier also wrote that “with the conversion of additional M&I resources, we see an IRR in the high single digits at BMO metal price assumptions, and with a further improvement at spot as well.” Cartier noted that Triple Flag detailed Evolution was set to advance E22 and was targeting “first cave production by the end of its fiscal 2030 year.” The report included a rating of “Market Perform” with a stated target of “CA$60.00.”