The Big One

Israel attacks Iran: We’re all waking up to a much less stable Middle East this morning. “Israel’s action to cripple Iran’s nuclear program is a service to all civilized people,” offers AIPAC. This attack “risks a regional war that will likely be catastrophic for America,” offers Sen. Chris Murphy (D–Conn.). Israel presents its actions as a “response to the Iranian regime’s ongoing aggression against Israel” and declares that this, dubbed Operation Rising Lion, is only “the first stage.”

Explosions were seen all across Iran early Friday morning, hitting Tehran, the main uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, Isfahan (near a nuclear facility), Tabriz (near a nuclear research center and two military facilities), Khondab (near a nuclear site), and Khorammabad (near a nuclear site). The cities of Arak and Kermanshah were also hit. At least six military bases were hit around Tehran. Some residential areas were struck (death toll currently unknown). Israel killed the commander in chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Hossein Salami; the deputy commander of Iran’s armed forces, Gen. Gholamali Rashid; the chief of staff of the military, Mohammad Bagheri; the head of the airspace unit of the Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh; and Ali Shamkhani, one of Iran’s most influential politicians and a close advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini, who had been overseeing the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States. Israel also attacked the homes of nuclear scientists Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi and Fereydoun Abbasi, assassinating both. Several other nuclear scientists were killed as well: Abdolhamid Minouchehr, who “conducted extensive research on improving the efficiency and safety of nuclear plants” (per Al Jazeera); Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari, who taught nuclear engineering at Shahid Beheshti University; Amir Hossein Faghihi, who previously helmed Iran’s Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute; and a scientist known as Motallebzadeh.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Iran’s nuclear program “a clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival,” claiming that Tehran had “taken steps that it has never taken before—steps to weaponize this enriched uranium.” He added: ”If not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could be a year. It could be within a few months.”

As reported in Roundup yesterday, a U.N. body—the International Atomic Energy Agency—just found Iran to be in violation of its nuclear obligations and censured it due to its refusal to work with the agency’s inspectors. The U.S. clearly had advance warning of the attacks and had started to evacuate certain personnel and family members of government employees from the Middle East. Trump had also presaged two months ago that Iran needed to agree to a nuclear deal on the timeline Trump had proposed or there would be consequences.

For an alternative take, go here. A third take is below:

“Two Israeli officials claimed to Axios that Trump and his aides were only pretending to oppose an Israeli attack in public — and didn’t express opposition in private. “We had a clear U.S. green light,” one claimed.” pic.twitter.com/1oSNxa6Jb6

— Anthony LaMesa (@ajlamesa) June 13, 2025

“I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal,” Trump said on Truth Social, but “they just couldn’t get it done.” Trump added that “the next already planned attacks” could be “even more brutal,” and warned that Iran “must make a deal, before there is nothing left.”

“I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come—And they know how to use it,” he said.

What happens next? Israel says it wants to completely cripple Iran’s nuclear program, preventing it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran maintains its innocence, repeatedly claiming the scaled-up nuclear capacity is for civilian energy purposes only.

Iran’s “axis of resistance”—its proxies and allies in the region, including Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi militias, and Yemeni Houthis—does not seem prepared to rush to its aid. Israel’s already spent many months fighting Hamas, most obviously, but also Hezbollah (for which domestic support has waned). U.S. strikes on the Houthis have left the group weak.

Alerts sent out to Israelis told them to stay near bomb shelters, and later to collect essential items. All gatherings in the country were banned. Schools and workplaces are closed. Flights arriving in and departing from Tel Aviv were canceled as the airspace was closed to civilians. Iran launched a barrage of drones at Israel, which were shot down by Israel’s defense systems. But Iran still vows retaliation at Israel, as well as the United States.

“We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio replied. “Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.” It remains to be seen whether Iran finds this plausible, given Trump’s rhetoric, the timing of the nuclear negotiations, and the U.S.’s closeness to Israel. Iran has moved quickly to get its top military brass replaced, and Khameini has wasted no time decrying Israel’s targeting of residential areas full of civilians. Crowds of protesters have formed, calling for Iran to retaliate.

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Scenes from New York: I am getting very worried about an actual socialist getting elected to lead my city.

All gas, no breaks. pic.twitter.com/gCR7pYU9uT

— Zohran Kwame Mamdani (@ZohranKMamdani) June 12, 2025

It’s very difficult to exaggerate how stupid this is. pic.twitter.com/3GaOMwqMd8

— Jonah Goldberg (@JonahDispatch) June 12, 2025

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QUICK HITS

• “Senator Alex Padilla, Democrat of California, was forcibly removed on Thursday from a news conference being held by Kristi Noem, the homeland security secretary, and handcuffed after he interrupted Ms. Noem at a federal building in West Los Angeles,” reports The New York Times. “‘Sir! Sir! Hands off!’ Mr. Padilla, 52, shouted as federal agents tried to muscle him out of the room inside a government office building about 15 miles west of downtown Los Angeles where Ms. Noem was speaking. ‘I am Senator Alex Padilla. I have a question for the secretary.’” Padilla was handcuffed and then, later, vouched for by…Corey Lewandowski. The FBI insists that it acted properly: “When an unrecognized Senator in plain clothes and wearing no security pin became disruptive and subsequently resisted law enforcement, our F.B.I. L.A. personnel responded in support of Secret Service completely appropriately.”
• Unrest at New Jersey’s migrant detention center, Delaney Hall.
• “The House on Thursday narrowly approved a request from the White House, known as a rescissions package, to claw back funding for NPR, PBS and international aid that lawmakers had previously appropriated,” reports CBS.
• Robert Malone, a total quack, was appointed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to one of the vacancies on the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. (A more promising pick is Martin Kulldorff, a former guest on Just Asking Questions.)
• “Reporters in this era have been asked to abandon objectivity and adhere to it. They’ve been urged to be public figures with heavy social media presences, but also told they’ll be fired if they say what they think,” writes Matt Taibbi on the firing of ABC anchor Terry Moran for a social media post criticizing Stephen Miller.

The post The Big One appeared first on Reason.com.

Source: https://reason.com/2025/06/13/the-big-one-2/